7 Florida Cities Dominated 2023 U.S. Growth

 By Amy Connolly

Seven Florida locales dominated the 2023 U-Haul Growth Index, indicating the Sunshine State continues to be a sought-after destination.

Seven Florida locales dominated the 2023 U-Haul Growth Index, indicating the Sunshine State continues to be a sought-after destination.

PHOENIX – Seven regions in Florida lead in the highest number of one-way U-Haul moves in 2023, underscoring the Sunshine State’s continued allure and appeal.

The U-Haul Growth Index found Florida represented 28% of the top 25 growth cities – the seventh consecutive year the state has had the most cities represented on the list.

1. Palm Bay-Melbourne
2. Ocala
3. Charleston-North Charleston, S.C.
4. Sarasota-Bradenton
5. Austin, Texas
6. College Station-Bryan, Texas
7. Charlotte, N.C.
8. Huntsville, Ala.
9. Dallas
10. Myrtle Beach-North Myrtle Beach, S.C.
11. Kissimmee-St. Cloud
12. Panama City-Panama City Beach
13. North Port
14. Boise, Idaho
15. Wake Forest, N.C.
16. Conroe, Texas
17. Knoxville, Tenn.
18. Surprise, Ariz.
19. Auburn-Opelika, Ala.
20. Lakeland
21. Murfreesboro, Tenn.
22. Wilmington, N.C.
23. Queen Creek, Ariz.
24. Henderson, Nev.
25. Nampa, Idaho

In the Palm Bay-Melbourne market, 54.7% of all one-way U-Haul traffic was arriving compared to 45.3% departing in 2023. Ocala, the No. 1 growth city in 2022, fell back one spot in the latest rankings.

“Growth in the Palm Bay-Melbourne area has been increasing at an explosive rate,” Cal Conner, U-Haul Company of Eastern Florida president, said. “The Space Coast has many companies investing in this region and creating jobs such as Embraer, SpaceX, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin and L3Harris Technologies. We have a low cost of living compared to many of the northern cities people have left. Add to that our fantastic year-round climate, and you can see why Palm Bay-Melbourne is such a desirable area to live.”

U-Haul calculates growth cities by each city’s net gain (or loss) of one-way equipment from customer transactions in a calendar year. The U-Haul Growth Index is compiled from more than 2.5 million one-way transactions that occur annually across the U.S. and Canada. Neighboring cities in U-Haul markets are often packaged together for migration trends purposes.

© 2024 Florida Realtors®

Homebuyers’ Median Age Jumps to 49

 By Jeannine Mancini

The media age of homebuyers is up from 39 two decades ago, suggesting finances play a critical role in homeownership.

WASHINGTON – The recent shift in the demographics of homebuyers in the United States paints a concerning picture for younger generations. The median age of homebuyers has risen to 49, a significant increase from 39 two decades ago.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) notes that today's homebuyers are generally older and wealthier, suggesting that financial resources play a crucial role. The difficulty for young people to enter the market is often because of a lack of financial assets or support from family known as the "Bank of Mom and Dad."

"We’re talking about a different profile of homebuyer today," NAR Deputy Chief Economist Jessica Lautz told Axios.

The cost of borrowing is another hurdle, with mortgage rates still around 6.5%. Another issue is the income required to afford a typical home has risen dramatically, now standing at $107,000, a 22% increase from the previous year, according to data.

Young Americans are also dealing with inflated everyday prices and significant student loan payments. This financial strain benefits those with more cash on hand or those who have built equity through previous home purchases, a group that tends to be older.

It's not just a matter of personal finance. A reported 70% of Americans aged 23 to 40 who wish to buy a home state they cannot afford it. This affordability crisis is further exacerbated by housing prices, which have surged nearly 120% since 1965, adjusting for inflation. The root cause of this crisis is the imbalance in supply and demand.

Housing prices are soaring because of limited supply and increasing demand. The supply is constrained by strict zoning laws and environmental regulations, making it difficult to expand housing either vertically through high-density residences or horizontally by building on undeveloped land.

On the demand side, the growing population, both from natural growth and net migration, intensifies the demand for housing. Millennials, in particular, face multiple challenges. The rising cost of housing, heavy student loan debt, stagnant wage growth despite being well-educated and other financial obligations like high rental costs are all significant barriers to homeownership.

The COVID-19 pandemic further contributed to a shortage of homes for sale, pushing prices even higher. Lending practices have also become less favorable for millennials. Tighter lending standards, requiring good credit scores and low debt-to-income ratios, are especially challenging for this generation, many of whom are still building credit or managing student loan debt.

Generation Z faces similar challenges, compounded by rapid urbanization, population growth and high interest rates, further diminishing their ability to save for a home. The rising median age of homebuyers is a reflection of broader economic and regulatory challenges that disproportionately affect younger generations. The combination of financial constraints, stringent lending practices and limited housing supply presents a significant hurdle for these generations to overcome in their pursuit of homeownership.

© 2023 Benzinga.com - Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

Foreign Buyer Registration Rules Effective Jan. 4

 The Florida. Dept. of Commerce finalized its rules and their effective date pertaining to certain foreign principals who must register property ownership under a 2023 law.

ORLANDO, Fla. – The Florida Department of Commerce Foreign finalized its rules for certain foreign principals to register certain land they directly or indirectly own in the state.

The registration process was already outlined in a Florida Realtors News article – Deadlines Loom for Some Fla. Foreign Landowners. The rules are final and will be effective Jan. 4.

Of note is Rule 73C-60.003 (5). It is a provision entitled Registration for Real Estate Contracts and applies to foreign principals with equitable title, as follow:

• A foreign principal who obtains equitable title by executing a real estate contract with the obligation of closing to obtain legal title within 90 days shall register the real property that is the subject of the contract within 30 days of acquiring legal title.
• A foreign principal who obtains equitable title by executing a real estate contract without the obligation of closing to obtain legal title within 90 days shall register the real property that is the subject of the contract within 120 days of acquiring equitable title.

Realtors are not part of the registration process, and, due to the complexity of the new law, should advise customers to speak to counsel about their legal responsibilities.

Rule Chapter 73C-60, including the seven updates, can be found on the Florida Administrative Code & Florida Administrative Register website. They include:

Chapter Title: Community Planning; Purchase of Real Property on or Around Military Installations or Critical Infrastructure Facilities by Foreign Principals

• 73C-60.001 – Definitions

• 73C-60.002 – Real Estate Transactions Prior to July 1, 2023
• 73C-60.003 – Registration
• 73C-60.004 – Computation of Time
• 73C-60.005 – Fines
• 73C-60.006 – Liens
• 73C-60.007 – Rebuttable Presumption

South Florida Buyers, Renters to See Positive 2024 Changes

 By Rebecca San Juan

Forecasters say it’s a great time to buy or rent in South Florida thanks to the shifting market. 

MIAMI – Homebuyers and renters are in luck. Real estate experts predict you can expect better deals in South Florida in 2024.

Thanks to a slowdown in home sales and a growing supply of residences – especially high-rises – it'll be a good time to rent or buy, the forecasters say. Prices will lower slightly, but it won't be a free for all. The market will be just slightly better than in 2023.

"There's that old saying of what goes up, must come down," said Jack McCabe, owner of the Deerfield Beach-based real estate and economic research firm Jack McCabe Expert Services.

“We're going to see that this year. A lot of what drove the market will taper off,” he said. “Yes, people might be coming from across the globe, but will they make up for the domestic, Northeast buyer? No, they won't. Are we going to see a tapering off of these unrealistic, artificial, inflated prices? Yes, we are.”

The Miami Herald spoke with seven real estate academics, analysts and real estate agents to hear what they predict will happen in 2024.

Here's what they expect:

What will happen with affordable and workforce housing?

Question: Any price relief for buyers or renters?

Ned Murray, associate director of the Jorge M. Perez Metropolitan Center at Florida International University: The only good news, if there's any good news, is prices won't go up that much more, including rents. They've maxed out, but prices are so unaffordable that it has paralyzed the market. Where do we go from here? We will pretty much see things stay the same as they are right now. We'll see difficulty in addressing that supply.

Ashon Nesbitt, CEO of the Florida Housing Coalition: There is still a great need, and the great need comes from those who earn 50% or below of the area median income. In a lot of cases these are working people who fall within that range. That's people who work full time and earn $40,000 or $50,000 and are raising a child. These are people who work in the medical field, schools and service industry.

Ken H. Johnson, a finance professor specializing in real estate at Florida Atlantic University: As we eventually oversupply at the higher end of the market, that will help drive down all prices across the spectrum. We get out and beat the drum of the bad builders, the bad developers, but they're building at margins that they have to make a profit or they have to close. You can't tell someone you have to build a product at below market cost for the good of the community. You let market forces work and then it solves itself over time.

Q: How will the short supply of affordable and workforce housing affect residents?

Johnson: In 2008 and 2009, people left Miami because there were no jobs. This time around the economy should remain robust. I don't think people will leave. I think you'll see an increase in density – more people living together, because they want to stay. We'll talk about affordability. We won't be happy with it, but people should remain in the market with good jobs.

Q: What solutions might we see play out?

Murray: We can be optimistic. Counties and municipalities do have it through their power, land use and zoning to make a difference. That's what we can be hoping for. Maybe a few years ago it was difficult to get local officials to understand just how bad the situation was, but there's a growing recognition of local issues. That begins to play out. The response to that is you don't have to rely on Washington. You don't have to rely on Tallahassee. You can handle this locally. ...We're not asking every municipality to build high-density, mixed-income housing. Even if it's one-to-two acres, that can make a big difference.

Nesbitt: It will be challenging to push for that development, because it has become so difficult and complicated to build in certain cases, because of rising costs and projects have to work financially. That will require a lot of creativity to think that through. That will be the biggest challenge, but I also think it will be a great opportunity to be able to galvanize all of those stakeholders to bring everyone to the table.

What should buyers shopping for a house or condo know?

Q: Miami-Dade has a median sales price of $615,000 for a house and $420,000 for a condo, according to the latest home sales report from the Miami Association of Realtors. What will happen to home prices?

Ana Bozovic, founder of Analytics Miami and Miami Dealsheet: We do have Fed rate cuts priced into the market. That should hopefully make it easier for people who need to move to move. We'll get lower-priced homes on our market.

Q: Supply remains low. Miami-Dade has 4.4 months of supply of houses and 6.8 months of condos. A balanced market ranges between six and nine months of supply. What will happen to inventory?

McCabe: We're going to see increases in inventory. We're going to see longer sales time. We're going to see people lowering the asking prices. ... For condos and townhomes, we've got a lot of new product coming on the market. As a result, we're going to see the prices of condos and townhomes coming down.

What will happen with luxury housing?

Q: What will define luxury housing – homes priced at or above a million – in the new year?

Danny Hertzberg, real estate agent at the brokerage firm Jills Zeder Group: The market will be driven by California and Brazilian buyers. I'm talking about hundreds of buyers actively looking from California. After every closing they say they have three friends they want to connect me with that are looking to buy.

Bozovic: The shift away from California and New York has just begun. We are going to keep getting tax refugees. It will be a major force in 2024.

Q: We saw a lot of well-known individuals moving to South Florida in 2023, including Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and soccer star Lionel Messi. How likely will that type of migration continue?

Jonathan Miller, president and CEO, Miller Samuel real estate consultancy firm: We're going to see more. Miami is not replacing New York as the center of the securities industry, but it is now on the radar. Work from home has changed the way people think about where they live versus where they work.

© 2023 Miami Herald. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Redfin Report: Home Buyer Demand Shows Signs of Early Rebound

 By Amy Connolly

Home buyers, encouraged by declining mortgage rates and increased listings, are moving from the sidelines, the Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index found.

WASHINGTON – Redfin real estate found U.S. pending home sales had the smallest decline since March 2022, dropping by 4% year over year in the four weeks ending Dec. 24.

The Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index also found median sale prices across the United States had the biggest increase since Oct. 2022, “because rapidly rising mortgage rates were hampering prices during this time last year.” The year-over-year change was 4.5%. Active listings (-3.8%) saw the smallest decline since June.
 

Fort Lauderdale (13.6%), West Palm Beach (13.2%) and Miami (12.6%) were among Redfin’s five metro areas with the biggest year-over-year increases in median sale prices. 

Orlando (5%) was among Redfin’s list of metro areas with the biggest year-over-year increases in pending sales.

At the same time, Jacksonville (-10.2%), West Palm Beach (-10.2%) and Tampa (-9.6%) saw declines in their year-over-year pending sales.

© 2024 Florida Realtors®

Real Estate Market in Florida: More Sales and New Listings, Median Prices Up

 By Marla Martin

Florida's single-family closed sales up 4.2% YOY, median price up 3.3% ($413K). Condo sales up 0.3%, median price up 7.5% ($330K); new listings also up.

ORLANDO, Florida. – Florida’s housing market reported more new listings and higher statewide median sales prices in November compared to the previous year, according to Florida Realtors®’ latest housing data.

“November brought some welcome news for Florida homebuyers, as mortgage rates started to ease and the inventory (active listings) of for-sale properties increased statewide,” says 2023 Florida Realtors® President G. Mike McGraw, a broker-associate with LPT Realty in Orlando. “The inventory for existing single-family homes rose 13.9% last month, while the inventory for condo-townhouse units increased by 49.8%. It means more housing options are now available for buyers who may have been discouraged during previous home searches.”

Last month, closed sales of existing single-family homes statewide totaled 17,722, up 4.2% year-over-year, while existing condo-townhouse sales totaled 7,108, a slight rise of 0.3% over November 2022, according to data from Florida Realtors Research Department in partnership with local Realtor boards/associations. Closed sales may occur from 30- to 90-plus days after sales contracts are written.

“Lately, prospective buyers in Florida have seen an increasing number of choices in their home searches,” says Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor. “The number of new listings was uncharacteristically low at this time last year, but over the last couple of months, we’ve seen the level of new listings move back into the range of recent norms. New listings of single-family homes in Florida were up by 15.3% in November compared to a year ago. And over in the townhouse and condo category, new listings were up even more, rising by 25.9%.”

He adds, “With these significant increases in new listings compared to a year ago outpacing the very modest increase in sales over the same timeframe, inventory levels continued to rise in Florida. In fact, the current trajectory of inventory growth is such that we may be back at pre-pandemic levels of single-family inventory as soon as the end of the year. At this time in 2019, Florida was still experiencing a single-family inventory shortage – just not nearly as severe as what we faced after the pandemic began. Inventory gains in the condo-townhouse category last month were significant, as well.”

The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in November was $413,000, up 3.3% from one year earlier. For condo-townhouse units, the median price was $330,000, up 7.5% from a year earlier.

Florida had a 3.7-months’ supply of single-family existing homes last month, up 32.1% year-over-year. Meanwhile, condo-townhouse units reported a 5-months’ supply last month, up 85.2% over the Nov. 2022 level.

To see the full statewide housing activity reports, go to the Florida Realtors Newsroom and look under Latest Releases or download the November 2023 data report PDFs under Market Data.

© 2023 Florida Realtors®

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Grow in November, Ending Five-Month Slide

 By Amy Connolly

NAR’s chief economist says home prices keep moving higher. The median home sale price in the South was up 3.4% from last year to $351,500.

WASHINGTON – Existing-home sales grew in November, breaking a streak of five consecutive monthly declines, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). Among the four major U.S. regions, sales climbed in the South and Midwest but receded in the Northeast and West. All four regions experienced year-over-year sales decreases.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – elevated 0.8% from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.82 million in November. Year-over-year, sales fell 7.3% (down from 4.12 million in November 2022).

“The latest weakness in existing home sales still reflects the buyer bidding process in most of October when mortgage rates were at a two-decade high before the actual closings in November,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “A marked turn can be expected as mortgage rates have plunged in recent weeks.”

According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.95% as of Dec. 14, falling below 7% for the first time since Aug. 10. That's down from 7.03% the previous week but up from 6.31% one year ago.

Total housing inventory registered at the end of November was 1.13 million units, down 1.7% from October but up 0.9% from one year ago (1.12 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.6 months in October but up from 3.3 months in November 2022.

The median existing-home price for all housing types in November was $387,600, an increase of 4.0% from November 2022 ($372,700). All four U.S. regions posted price increases.

“Home prices keep marching higher,” Yun added. “Only a dramatic rise in supply will dampen price appreciation.”

Notable takeaways from November:

• According to the monthly Realtors Confidence Index, properties typically remained on the market for 25 days in November, up from 23 days in October and 24 days in November 2022. Sixty-two percent of homes sold in November were on the market for less than a month.
• About a third (31%) of November sales went to first-time homebuyers, up from 28% in October 2023 and November 2022. NAR's 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released on Nov. 4 – found that the annual share of first-time buyers was 32%.
• Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 18% of homes in November, up from 15% in October and 14% one year ago.
• Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented 1% of sales in November, virtually unchanged from last month and the previous year.

Also:

Single-family and Condo/Co-op Sales

• Single-family home sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.41 million in November, up 0.9% from 3.38 million in October but down 7.3% from the prior year. The median existing single-family home price was $392,100 in November, up 3.5% from November 2022.

• Existing condominium and co-op sales recorded a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 410,000 units in November, identical to October and down 6.8% from one year ago. The median existing condo price was $350,100 in November, up 8.6% from the previous year ($322,400).

Regional Breakdown

• Existing-home sales in the South improved 4.7% from October to an annual rate of 1.77 million in November, a decline of 4.3% from the prior year. The median price in the South was $351,500, up 3.4% from last year.

• Existing-home sales in the Northeast slipped 2.1% from October to an annual rate of 470,000 in November, down 13.0% from November 2022. The median price in the Northeast was $428,600, up 4.8% from the prior year.

• In the Midwest, existing-home sales rose 1.1% from the previous month to an annual rate of 940,000 in November, down 8.7% from one year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $280,800, up 4.9% from November 2022.

• In the West, existing-home sales slumped 7.2% from a month ago to an annual rate of 640,000 in November, down 8.6% from one year before. The median price in the West was $603,200, up 5.3% from November 2022.

© 2023 Florida Realtors®