Aging owners could free up 13.9M homes by 2036

 By Amy Connolly

Baby boomers and the Silent Generation are expected to release millions of homes over the next decade, but most will be family-sized or larger, offering limited relief for first-time buyers.

Older Americans are expected to free up nearly 14 million homes over the next decade, gradually adding inventory to a housing market that has struggled with too few homes for sale.

But most of that added supply won't be starter homes.

Baby boomers and members of the Silent Generation are projected to release 13.9 million owner-occupied homes between 2026 and 2036, according to new Realtor.com research. About 9.9 million, or 71%, are expected to be three- or four-bedroom family homes.

Only about 380,000 will be starter homes with two bedrooms or fewer.

"The scale of this transition is unlike anything we've seen in the past decade, and it's accelerating every year," said Jiayi Xu, senior economist at Realtor.com. "The question for buyers and sellers isn't whether more homes are coming, but which homes, where and how many buyers will be there to meet them."

Boomers and the Silent Generation currently occupy an estimated 36.7 million homes they own. Realtor.com projects that number will fall to 22.8 million by 2036 as older homeowners die, move to care facilities, combine households or switch to rentals.

That would release about 1.39 million homes annually on average, although not all of those properties would necessarily be listed for sale.

Most of the released homes are expected to be family-sized. Realtor.com projects about 9.9 million three- and four-bedroom homes will be released over the decade, along with another 3.6 million homes with five or more bedrooms.

That could give trade-up buyers more choices and potentially help loosen other parts of the market. More family-home inventory could allow some owners of starter homes to move up, putting their previous homes back into the market.

Starter-home inventory, however, is expected to see much less relief.

Older generations own about 1.33 million homes with two bedrooms or fewer, but Realtor.com expects only about 380,000 to be released by 2036, averaging about 38,000 annually.

One reason may be that owners of smaller homes are more likely to own them outright. Realtor.com found 72.8% of starter-home owners ages 70 to 79 had no mortgage, compared with 65.1% of family-home owners and 58.9% of owners of large homes.

"The handoff is a welcome relief, but it is not big enough to solve the housing shortage issue alone," Xu said.

The projected turnover is about 34% higher than what older households released over the previous decade.

For real estate professionals, the shift is likely to be gradual rather than a sudden flood of listings. Realtor.com expects the added supply to be concentrated in family-sized and larger homes and in slower-growing markets, while entry-level inventory sees much less improvement.

The result could be more choices for move-up buyers, but much less change for first-time buyers still competing for affordable homes.

© 2026 Florida Realtors®

Florida housing market levels off in August

 By Amy Connolly

Florida home sales dipped slightly in August, but tightening inventory and rising prices point to a leveling market, Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor said.

Florida’s housing market showed signs of leveling off in August, with tightening inventory and rising prices helping offset slight declines in closed sales. Closed sales of single-family homes fell about 1.5% from August 2025, while closed sales of condos and townhouses declined just under 2%, according to Florida Realtors® Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor. New pending sales of single-family homes also dipped, ending 12 consecutive months of year-over-year gains.

Still, O’Connor said the latest numbers look more like a market settling into a steadier pace than one taking a significant turn for the worse.

“Sales remain relatively stable, inventory continues to tighten, and home prices are holding up well despite mortgage rates that remain challenging for many buyers,” he said.

Mortgage rates have remained between 6% and 7% for much of 2025 and 2026. While that does not represent a major shift in affordability, rates are now higher than they were a year ago, slowing the pace of sales growth.

“On the margin, the recent rise in rates has been enough to slow home sales growth,” O’Connor said.

August also brought some encouraging signs. New pending condo and townhouse sales increased slightly, extending their year-over-year growth streak to 13 months. Inventory continued to fall in both property categories, helping support prices.

August’s statewide market data showed:

• Single-family closed sales fell about 1.5% year over year.
• Condo and townhouse closed sales declined just under 2%.
• New pending single-family sales ended a 12-month streak of year-over-year gains.
• New pending condo and townhouse sales rose slightly for the 13th consecutive monthly gain.
• Single-family inventory declined 13% from a year earlier.
• Condo and townhouse inventory fell 11.5%.
• The single-family median sale price rose just over 1% to $415,000.
• The condo and townhouse median price increased nearly 3% to just under $298,000.

The single-family median price has now risen year over year for six consecutive months. Inventory in that category also fell below where it was two years ago, while condo and townhouse inventory moved closer to 2024 levels.

O’Connor said affordability challenges are likely to remain, but Florida continues to see signs of renewed migration and movement among buyers and sellers who had been waiting for the market to return to its 2021 conditions.

“There’s not much here that suggests Florida’s housing market is suddenly headed in a dramatically different direction,” he said.

Statewide numbers offer a broad view, but local conditions can vary by property type, price point and community. Florida Realtors members can use SunStats for free to compare the latest sales, inventory and pricing trends in their markets.

© 2026 Florida Realtors®

Newcomers to Florida bring a stronger buying profile

By Amy Connolly

People moving to Florida from other states tend to earn more and are more likely to own a home, while international migration now drives most of the state’s net growth, according to the Florida Chamber Foundation’s 2026 Florida Business & Economic Mid-Year Report.

Florida’s migration boom has cooled, but the people still choosing the state may be entering the housing market with stronger financial footing.

The people still moving to Florida from other states tend to be older, earn more and are more likely to already own a home than those leaving, according to the Florida Chamber Foundation’s 2026 Florida Business & Economic Mid-Year Report.

That matters as Florida’s single-family market continues to show signs of gradual improvement. Florida Realtors® data cited in the report shows single-family sales increased year over year for 10 consecutive months through June.

In the report, Florida Realtors Chief Economist Brad O’Connor said the market has shifted from normalization into a “gradual recovery,” adding that the underlying trend remains one of “slow, sustainable improvement.”

Among people moving to Florida from other states, 53% were homeowners, compared with 42% of those leaving. New arrivals also had an average income of $41,038, versus $37,198 for those moving out, while 47% held at least a bachelor’s degree.

The numbers give housing professionals a clearer picture of who is still choosing Florida even as the pace of migration slows.

Florida gained a net 551 residents per day in 2025, the second-highest total in the country behind Texas, but well below the state’s 2022 peak of 1,640 per day.

“Slowing isn’t a red flag,” the report said, noting that migration patterns are still adjusting after the rapid growth of 2020 through 2022.

Where that growth is coming from has also changed. International migration accounted for 89% of Florida’s net migration in 2025, while domestic migration made up 11%. Net domestic migration has not exceeded international migration since 2022.

The statewide picture also varies sharply by county. Polk County gained a net 62 residents per day, followed by Pasco at 55 and Marion at 47. Miami-Dade lost a net 49 per day as domestic losses outweighed international gains.

© 2026 Florida Realtors® 

Florida condo sales grow at both ends of market

 By Amy Connolly

Florida’s townhouse and condo market posted a 9% year-over-year increase in second-quarter sales, with the strongest gains among properties priced below $200,000 and those selling for $1 million or more. Sales also rose sharply in several metro areas, including Panama City, Punta Gorda, Cape Coral-Fort Myers and Naples.

Florida’s townhouse and condo market gained ground in the second quarter, with the strongest sales growth coming from properties priced below $200,000 and those selling for $1 million or more.

Closed sales of units priced below $200,000 rose 18.4% from a year earlier to 6,205, according to Florida Realtors® data. At the other end of the market, sales of properties priced at $1 million or more jumped 29.5% to 2,195.

The results point to increased activity among two very different groups: buyers searching for lower-priced housing options and those shopping in Florida’s luxury market.

Growth within the million-dollar category extended across every price range. Sales between $1.25 million and $1.49 million rose 33%, while sales from $1.5 million to just under $2 million increased 37.4%. Sales between $2 million and $2.99 million climbed 39.4%.

The highest-priced categories posted even larger percentage gains, although they accounted for fewer transactions. Sales between $5 million and just under $10 million increased 48.8%, while sales of $10 million or more rose 59.3% to 43.

Most of the middle price ranges also improved, but more modestly. Sales rose 3.2% for properties priced between $200,000 and $299,999 and 1.8% in the $300,000 to $399,999 range. The only category to decline was $800,000 to $899,999, where sales fell 3.2%.

Overall, Florida recorded 27,106 townhouse and condo sales during the quarter, up 9% year over year. The statewide median sale price remained unchanged at $310,000.

The sales gains were spread across several parts of the state. Panama City posted the largest percentage increase among Florida metropolitan areas, with townhouse and condo sales rising 40.1%. Sales increased 31.6% in Punta Gorda, 26.9% in Cape Coral-Fort Myers, 26.6% in Sebastian-Vero Beach and 21.3% in Naples.

Those markets cover a wide range of price points. The second-quarter median townhouse and condo price was $255,000 in Punta Gorda, $285,000 in Cape Coral-Fort Myers, $367,000 in Panama City and $465,000 in Naples.

© 2026 Florida Realtors®

Florida pending sales outperform national market

 By Amy Connolly

Florida single-family pending sales rose 4.1% year over year in June, outperforming national and regional declines. Closed sales and prices also increased, though the monthly pending-sales total fell from May.

Florida’s single-family housing market showed stronger year-over-year momentum than the nation, with new pending sales rising in the state while declining nationally, according to the latest housing data. 

New pending sales of Florida single-family homes increased 4.1% from June 2025, reaching 24,235, according to Florida Realtors® data. Pending inventory, which measures all homes under contract at the end of the month, rose 5.1% year over year to 32,034.

Nationally, pending home sales fell 0.3% from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The South posted a 0.9% annual decline, making Florida’s increase particularly notable within the region.

The statewide numbers suggest Florida buyers remained active despite mortgage rates near 6.5% and affordability concerns weighing on the broader U.S. market. New pending sales also increased 4.8% year over year in May.

The statewide numbers suggest Florida buyers remained active despite mortgage rates near 6.5% and affordability concerns weighing on the broader U.S. market. New pending sales also increased 4.8% year over year in May.

Sales activity typically slows after the spring buying season, with both new pending sales and closed sales generally lower in the summer. Because that pattern occurs nearly every year, Florida Realtors economists said the more important measure is whether sales are rising or falling compared with the same period a year earlier.

For now, that trend remains positive. However, if the year-over-year change in new pending sales moves closer to zero or turns negative, closed sales could follow a month or two later. That could become more likely if mortgage rates rise above their year-ago levels in the coming months.

Pending sales are considered an early indicator of future closings because they represent homes that are under contract but have not yet completed the sales process. Not every pending contract closes, however, because financing, inspections, appraisals and other issues can cause transactions to fall through.

Florida’s completed sales also strengthened in June. Closed sales of single-family homes increased 9.3% year over year to 26,036, while the median sale price rose 4.9% to $432,000. The large annual sales gain was partly influenced by an unusually weak June 2025, but total sales remained higher than last year and close to June 2023 levels.

For Realtors®, the statewide increase in pending sales provides a useful starting point for conversations with buyers and sellers, but local conditions may differ.

© 2026 Florida Realtors®

Florida economy moves up to No. 14 globally

 By Amy Connolly

The state's $1.8 trillion economy is now the world’s 14th largest after surpassing Australia and Mexico, according to the Florida Chamber Foundation. The foundation said Florida’s economy grew 6.3% over the past year, moving the state closer to its goal of ranking among the world’s 10 largest economies by 2030.

Florida’s $1.8 trillion economy is now the 14th largest in the world, surpassing Australia and Mexico, according to the Florida Chamber Foundation.

The new ranking, up from 15, moves Florida closer to the Florida 2030 Blueprint’s goal of becoming one of the world’s 10 largest economies by 2030.

Florida’s economy grew 6.3% over the past year, the foundation said. At its current size, the economy would need to grow about 2% to surpass South Korea and reach No. 13. Moving into the top 10 would require about 21% additional growth, with Canada currently ranked 10th.

“Florida’s rise to the world’s 14th largest economy is part of our Florida 2030 Blueprint plan and further proof that free enterprise works,” said Mark Wilson, president and CEO of the Florida Chamber of Commerce and Florida Chamber Foundation. “Florida continues creating jobs, attracting investment, welcoming new businesses, and giving families greater opportunity to succeed.”

The foundation highlighted several areas in which Florida ranks among the nation’s leaders:

• No. 1 for new business startups
• No. 1 higher education system
• No. 1 for manufacturing job growth
• No. 1 for net income migration
• No. 1 for new business migration
• No. 1 for Black-owned businesses
• No. 2 for Hispanic- and women-owned businesses
• Lowest state debt per capita
• 155,742 fewer children living in poverty since the Florida 2030 Blueprint launched

“This ranking reflects the impact of Florida’s economic growth over time,” said Sheridan Morby, the foundation’s senior director of economic research. “Strong labor market expansion and business investment continue to help position Florida among the world’s largest economies.”

The Florida Chamber Foundation plans to provide additional analysis in its 2026 Florida Business & Economic Mid-Year Report next month. The report will examine economic growth, population changes, inflation, manufacturing, workforce development and housing affordability.

© 2026 Florida Realtors®

Florida pending sales surge points to stronger months ahead

 By Amy Connolly

New pending sales of single-family homes in Florida rose 8% year over year in April, a sharp increase that Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor said could signal continued closed-sales growth into May and June.

New pending sales of single-family homes in Florida jumped 8% year over year in April, a sharp increase that could signal stronger housing activity heading into the summer market, according to Florida Realtors® Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor.

The April gain was more than double the increases seen in February and March, when pending sales growth remained much more modest statewide.

Pending sales measure how many homes went under contract during the month and are widely viewed as a leading indicator for future closed sales because most transactions finalize several weeks later.

“One of the first things you might notice is that new pending sales for single-family homes in Florida were up year over year quite a bit in January, but in February and March, they were up much more modestly,” O’Connor said during Florida Realtors’ April housing market update.

April’s stronger reading may point to more buyers continuing to move forward despite affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates.

“Here, we see an 8% year over year increase, which is more than double the increases we saw in each of the previous two months,” O’Connor said. “As a result, I think we can be pretty confident that our run of rising closed sales will continue into May, and likely June.”

For Realtors® in Florida, the increase in pending sales could provide an early indication that buyer activity may remain steadier through late spring and early summer than some expected earlier this year.

The stronger pending-sales numbers also build on a market that has already seen eight consecutive months of year-over-year gains in closed single-family home sales statewide. In April, closed sales rose nearly 2.5% from a year earlier.

© 2026 Florida Realtors®