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Monday, October 31, 2022

98 of the 100 largest U.S. markets saw home prices decline in September from their 2022 peaks

 Janice McDill, October 31, 2022 - Knock


  • 98 markets saw declines from their May 2022 highs; prices in 42 major housing markets are projected to fall further from their record highs by September 2023
  • Providence, Rhode Island, and Salisbury, Maryland, were the only markets where home prices have remained at their peaks set this summer
  • National median home price will fall to $390,766 in January before reaching a new high of $416,500 in July 2023
  • Twenty-seven of the nation’s 100 largest markets will favor buyers by September 2023, up from 16 this year

Prices in all markets remain at or below summer 2022 peaks, more will fall further

As mortgage rates remain at 20-year highs following the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes to curb inflation, the national housing market continued to cool off in September, according to the Knock Buyer-Seller Market Index, which analyzes key housing market metrics to measure the degree to which the nation’s 100 largest markets favor home buyers or sellers. The Index showed that across the nation’s 100 largest housing markets, the supply of homes for sale has steadily grown and the typical sale price has dropped over the course of this year. During the first nine months of 2022, just over 1.8 million homes had sold across the nation's largest housing markets -- less than total sales by this month in each of the past four years. 

Although the median home sale price in the largest 100 U.S. housing markets continued to grow year-over-year in September, rising 6.6% to $388,000, the national median home price was down 5.4% from its $410,000 peak in May. September’s year-over-year growth reflects more typical appreciation, but it is well below the double-digit price growth of the past two years. 

In September, 98 markets saw home prices below their peak price in May. Providence, Rhode Island, and Salisbury, Maryland, were the only markets where home prices have remained at their peaks set this summer.

Fifteen markets saw prices drop by 10% or more in September from their price peaks - in all cases set between April and June this year. 

Prices in most of these 15 markets are expected to start rising this fall, but only marginally, before dipping down again. The projected median sale price for September 2023 will remain  below the 2022 summer peaks in all 15 of these markets.

Like many markets reporting price declines compared to this summer, cities in the West and South dominate the largest declines. Seven of the 15 markets that saw price drops of 10% or more since this past summer are in the West, another seven are in the South, and just one (Bridgeport, Connecticut) is in the Northeast. 

For markets with large declines off their summer peaks, unusually strong YoY price growth is forecast in three cities: Winston-Salem, North Carolina (10.3%), Fayetteville, Arkansas (9.1%), and Seattle, Washington (8.9%).

15 markets with largest price drops from peak

RankMarketPeak priceMonth of peak priceCurrent median
% change from peakForecasted median sale priceYoY price change (2022-23)
National$410,000May 2022$388,000-5.4%$414,0006.6%
1Reno, Nev.$570,000May 2022$490,000-14.0%$491,0000.2%
2Winston-Salem, N.C.$282,000June 2022$245,000-13.1%$270,00010.3%
3Boise City, Idaho$535,000May 2022$465,000-13.1%$448,000-3.6%
4Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, Texas$590,000May 2022$515,000-12.7%$535,0003.8%
5New Orleans-Metairie, La.$315,000June 2022$275,000-12.7%$286,0003.9%
6San Jose-Sunnyvale- Santa Clara, Calif.$1,600,000April 2022$1,400,000-12.5%$1,443,0003.1%
7San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif.$1,300,000April 2022$1,145,000-11.9%$1,148,0000.3%
8Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Ark.$345,000June 2022$306,000-11.3%$334,0009.1%
9Savannah, Ga.$333,600June 2022$296,000-11.3%$308,0003.9%
10Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, Fla.$338,000June 2022$300,000-11.2%$319,0006.2%
11Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.$450,000May 2022$400,000-11.1%$386,000-3.5%
12Ogden-Clearfield, Utah$499,900June 2022$445,000-11.0%$458,0003.0%
13Naples-Marco Island, Fla.$625,000May 2022$560,000-10.4%$584,0004.3%
14Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn.$639,000June 2022$574,000-10.2%$595,0003.6%
15Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.$750,000April 2022$675,000-10.0%$735,0008.9%

Home prices in 42 major housing markets are projected to fall further from their 2022 record highs by next September. The top 10 markets with forecasted price drops through September 2023 are: Boise City, Idaho (-16.2%);  Lakeland, Florida (-14.2%); Las Vegas, Nevada (-14.2%); Reno, Nevada (-13.9%); San Francisco, California (-11.7%); San Jose, California (-9.8%); Austin, Texas (-9.3%); Oxnard, California (-9.3%); New Orleans, Louisiana (-9.3%) and Ogden, Utah (-8.3%).

Fifteen of the 42 markets are in the South, including three of the 10 markets with the largest forecasted price drops: Lakeland, Florida, Austin, Texas and New Orleans, Louisiana. Another 15 are in the West -- home to some of the most expensive markets in the nation. The remaining seven and five markets forecasting prices below this summer's peak are in the Midwest and Northeast, respectively. Bridgeport, Connecticut, is forecasted to see the largest price drop -7.8%, while Springfield, Missouri, will lead the Midwest with a projected price decline of 3.9%.

These markets tend to be where prices reached their highest levels this past summer. In 15 of the 25 markets with the largest projected median sale price declines, prices peaked at well above the national high of $410,000. The median sale price peaked at $1.3 million and $1.6 million in San Francisco and San Jose, California, in April 2022, respectively. 

42 markets with forecasted price declines

RankMarketForecasted price decline from 2022 peakPeak pricePeak monthSept. 2023 forecasted median sale priceSept. 2022 median sale price2019 median sale price
National0.9%$410,000May 2022$414,000$388,000$278,000
1Boise City, Idaho-16.2%$535,000May 2022$448,000$465,000$308,490
2Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.-14.2%$325,000May 2022$279,000$302,500$205,000
3Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.-14.2%$450,000May 2022$386,000$400,000$290,000
4Reno, Nev.-13.9%$570,000May 2022$491,000$490,000$370,000
5San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif.-11.7%$1,300,000April 2022$1,148,000$1,145,00$854,000
6San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.-9.8%$1,600,000April 2022$1,443,000$1,400,000$1,055,000
7Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, Texas-9.4%$590,000May 2022$535,000$515,000$320,000
8Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif.-9.3%$853,000April 2022$773,000$770,000$600,000
9New Orleans-Metairie, La.-9.3%$315,000June 2022$286,000$275,000$220,000
10Ogden-Clearfield, Utah-8.3%$499,900June 2022$458,000$445,000$286,500
11Savannah, Ga.-7.8%$333,600June 2022$308,000$296,000$215,000
12Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn.-6.9%$639,000June 2022$595,000$574,000$375,000
13Worcester, Mass.-Conn.-6.7%$428,000July 2022$399,000$390,000$276,000
14Naples-Marco Island, Fla.-6.6%$625,000May 2022$584,000$560,000$330,000
15Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, Wash.-5.9%$512,500June 2022$482,000$465,000$342,950
16Colorado Springs, Colo.-5.8%$480,000May 2022$452,000$435,000$318,500
17Baton Rouge, La.-5.8%$255,000April 2022$240,000$240,000$208,900
18Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, Fla.-5.7%$338,000June 2022$319,000$300,000$218,000
19Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.-5.2%$950,000April 2022$900,000$875,000$665,000
20Winston-Salem, N.C.-4.2%$282,000June 2022$270,000$245,000$175,000
21Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz.-4.1%$480,000May 2022$460,000$449,000$280,000
22Springfield, Mo.-3.9%$250,000July 2022$240,000$230,000$162,000
23Buffalo-Cheektowaga, N.Y.-3.7%$246,000July 2022$237,000$230,000$165,500
24Omaha-Council Bluffs, Neb.-Iowa-3.6%$305,000June 2022$294,000$277,500$207,107
25Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.-3.4%$335,000June 2022$324,000$305,000$238,000
26Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Ark.-3.3%$345,000June 2022$334,000$306,000$203,107
27Toledo, Ohio-3.2%$182,000July 2022$176,000$172,500$150,000
28Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio-2.9%$221,250June 2022$215,000$201,000$161,000
29Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.-2.1%$560,000May 2022$548,000$530,000$370,000
30Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.-2.0$750,000April 2022$735,000$675,000$470,000
31Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.-1.8%$705,000June 2022$692,000$660,000$480,000
32Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla.-1.6%$475,000April 2022$467,000$468,000$299,900
33Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas-1.4%$425,000May 2022$419,000$390,000$267,000
34Oklahoma City, Okla.-1.2%$254,000June 2022$251,000$237,500$186,400
35Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.-0.9%$275,000June 2022$273,000$250,000$187,210
36Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.-0.8%$257,000June 2022$255,000$240,000$189,900
37Tulsa, Okla.0.7%$256,250June 2022$254,000$240,500$176,000
38Richmond, Va.0.7%$360,000June 2022$358,000$337,000$259,000
39Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.0.6%$617,500June 2022$614,000$575,000$414,500
40Salt Lake City, Utah0.5%$552,000May 2022$549,000$505,000$345,000
41Pittsburgh, Pa.0.4%$249,900June 2022$249,000$231,000$177,000
42St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.0.2%$267,000June 2022$266,000$243,000$190,000

As the housing market continues to cool, 16 markets now significantly favor buyers

Homes that sold last month spent a median of 20 days on the market, up by one full week from this time last year and by nearly two weeks from the record low median of eight days on the market, which was set in March 2022. 

The average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their asking prices, fell to 99% in September, the lowest level since February 2021 and down from 100.3% in May, when prices peaked across the nation.

These dynamics pushed the 100 largest markets further away from seller-favorability into neutral territory last month with a slim majority of markets still favoring sellers.

Sixteen markets significantly favored buyers in September more than double from August. Austin, Texas; Boise, Idaho; Colorado Springs, Colorado; Detroit, Michigan; Jacksonville, Florida;  Las Vegas, Nevada; Los Angeles, California; Nashville, Tennessee; Reno, Nevada; Ogden, Utah; Phoenix, Arizona; Riverside, California; Salt Lake City, Utah; San Diego, California;  San Francisco, California; and San Jose, California, were in buyer territory last month. Thirty-three markets were neutral, offering no advantage to either sellers or buyers.

Notable among the nation's emerging buyers' markets is Las Vegas, Nevada, which is undergoing one of the largest market swings of any metro area in recent history. The major Southwestern market was the country's eighth best sellers' market during the national home price peak in May 2022. Now, after posting the largest shift toward buyer favorability of any major U.S. housing market, it is the fourth-best buyers' market. 

Among other signs of recovery, movement toward buyer favorability means more homes are available for sale. Active listings (housing inventory) in these 16 markets have grown considerably faster than most other areas. Across the 100 largest markets, inventory in September rose by 4% on a year-over-year basis and 23.7% from the nationwide price peak in May.

Buyers' markets in September

RankMarketMedian sale priceInventoryInventory YoYNo. homes soldMedian days on market
1Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz.$449,00019,32767.7%2,46329
2Ogden-Clearfield, Utah$445,0001,71083.5%34329
3San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif.$1,145,0005,17410.4%1,16523
4Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.$400,00010,99271.3%1,19726
5Salt Lake City, Utah$505,0002,34446.3%50821
6San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, Calif.$800,0004,18620.5%1,16621
7Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.$875,00016,4381.1%2,98135
8Reno, Nev.$490,0002,08155.9%30026
9Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.$530,00012,30416.9%1,96132
10Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tenn.$445,0006,70729.4%1,14726
11Jacksonville, Fla.$347,0005,23022.7%81129
12San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.$1,400,0001,6597.7%58719
13Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich.$250,0008,5538.8%1,97318
14Colorado Springs, Colo.$435,0002,63166.1%58418
15Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, Texas$515,0008,49971.2%95136
16Boise City, Idaho$465,0002,61750.1%397N/A

A slim majority of markets still favor sellers

Despite the cool-off – a majority – 51 markets -- remained sellers' markets in September, down from 83 in August. The rest were neutral, offering no advantage to either sellers or buyers. 

51 sellers' markets in September

RankMarketMedian sale priceInventoryInventory YoYMedian days on marketNo. homes sold
1Fayetteville, N.C.$215,000434-20.7%7793
2Winston-Salem, N.C.$245,000829-3.4%7407
3Savannah, Ga.$296,0001,157-11.4%19282
4Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.$220,0001,470-19.9%14355
5Rochester, N.Y.$220,000916-21.6%9436
6Greensboro-High Point, N.C.$255,0009495%8455
7Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, Wash.$520,000N/AN/AN/A445
8Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, Conn.$312,0002,012-32.6%23607
9El Paso, Texas$228,00084629.8%7316
10Akron, Ohio$205,0001,119-22.2%12416
11Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, Wash.$465,000N/AN/AN/A432
12Albuquerque, N.M.$315,000997-26.8%16481
13Milwaukee-Waukesha, Wis.$300,0002,867-33%33774
14Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.$675,000N/AN/AN/A4,932
15Portland-South Portland, Maine$450,00099320.4%7378
16Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio$201,0003,460-28.5%131,199
17Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.$250,0002,134-18.3%71,081
18New Haven-Milford, Conn.$314,0001,959-19.5%N/A439
19Worcester, Mass.-Conn.$390,000990-18.5%9450
20Springfield, Mo.$230,00064912.3%9326
21Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn.$574,0002,150-29.7%N/A439
22Columbia, S.C.$255,0001,2061.8%18397
23Oklahoma City, Okla.$237,5002,0598.4%9825
24St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.$243,0005,370-4.5%81,702
25New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.$589,00029,298-23%315,324
26Salisbury, Md.$380,0001,466-3.5%27309
27Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Ark.$306,00087415.5%9316
28Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa$265,0001,337-7.5%10430
29Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J.$295,0001,051-17.1%N/A412
30Omaha-Council Bluffs, Neb.-Iowa$277,500959-19.5%7471
31Raleigh-Cary, N.C.$435,0002,66015.6%182,177
32Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass.$425,0002,089-25.9%20699
33Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.$305,00021,818-21.1%299,201
34Tulsa, Okla.$240,5001,4951%10503
35Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.$660,0004,0951.5%91,582
36Madison, Wis.$359,9001,242-40.3%31357
37Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C.$425,0001,0453.1%18715
38Baton Rouge, La.$240,0001,3113.1%14287
39Toledo, Ohio$172,5001,379-14.6%35318
40Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas$345,00013,849-16.2%195,060
41Asheville, N.C.$420,0002,174-13.6%23313
42Buffalo-Cheektowaga, N.Y.$230,0001,4238.1%12427
43Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.$364,9005,531-6.9%141,408
44Chattanooga, Tenn.-Ga.$298,0001,710-7.1%12303
45Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla.$449,90023,675-0.9%322,293
46Columbus, Ohio$300,0004,835-15.4%271,199
47Charleston-North Charleston, S.C.$399,0003,1931.4%21525
48Naples-Marco Island, Fla.$560,0002,24575.3%30318
49Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.$270,0003,37025.4%91,343
50Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.$240,0002,140-10.5%11772
51Greenville-Anderson, S.C.$310,0002,13710%15474

Housing markets that still favor sellers are generally smaller - for example, only two of the top 10 sellers' markets in September (Rochester, New York and Hartford, Connecticut) have populations of more than 1 million people. As is typical in a sellers' market, active listings in most of the nation's top sellers' markets are declining. On a year-over-year basis, inventory rose in just 17 of the 51 sellers' markets. 

U.S. home prices to reach new highs by May 2023, but the shift to a buyers' market will continue

By September 2023, a majority of the U.S. market will skew more toward buyers. Twenty-seven of the 100 major housing markets are projected to favor buyers, up from 16 last month. Thirty markets will be neutral, and 43 will favor sellers.

27 buyers' markets by September 2023

RankMarketCurrent market statusForecasted market statusForecasted No. homes soldForecasted median days on marketForecasted median sale price
NationalNeutralFavors Buyers105,10036$414,000
1Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.Favors BuyersStrongly Favors Buyers1,60052$386,000
2Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TexasFavors BuyersStrongly Favors Buyers90039$535,000
3Colorado Springs, Colo.Favors BuyersStrongly Favors Buyers50019$452,000
4Ogden-Clearfield, UtahFavors BuyersStrongly Favors Buyers30034$458,000
5Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz.Favors BuyersStrongly Favors Buyers3,40033$460,000
6San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif.Favors BuyersStrongly Favors Buyers1,60027$1,148,000
7Salt Lake City, UtahFavors BuyersFavors Buyers40023$549,000
8Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.NeutralFavors Buyers1,50023$614,000
9Boise City, IdahoFavors BuyersFavors Buyers400N/A$448,000
10Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.Favors BuyersFavors Buyers3,60040$900,000
11Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tenn.Favors BuyersFavors Buyers90029$504,000
12Jacksonville, Fla.Favors BuyersFavors Buyers1,10030$393,000
13San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.Favors BuyersFavors Buyers40020$1,443,000
14Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.NeutralFavors Buyers60020$279,000
15Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.Favors BuyersFavors Buyers2,50029$548,000
16San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, Calif.Favors BuyersFavors Buyers1,50024$879,000
17Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.NeutralFavors Buyers1,60016$403,000
18Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, Ga.NeutralFavors Buyers3,10017$392,000
19Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.NeutralFavors Buyers2,00015$431,000
20San Antonio-New Braunfels, TexasNeutralFavors Buyers1,10028$361,000
21Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.NeutralFavors Buyers1,00017$604,000
22Killeen-Temple, TexasNeutralFavors Buyers30014$306,000
23Reno, Nev.Favors BuyersFavors Buyers40026$491,000
24Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TexasNeutralFavors Buyers2,70026$419,000
25Charleston-North Charleston, S.C.Favors SellersFavors Buyers50020$427,000
26Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif.NeutralFavors Buyers40036$773,000
27Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.NeutralFavors Buyers3,00018$407,000

Slightly over 1 million homes are forecasted to be sold between January and September 2023. The median sale price across the nation is projected to remain flat through the beginning of next year. Following to some degree the seasonal pattern of the housing market, prices will start to rise in May and are forecast to exceed $412,000 by May 2023, surpassing this year's record of $410,000. By September 2023, the number of homes for sale throughout the U.S. is to decline by 5.7% and median days will increase to 36 days.

For home buyers and prospective property investors, this could mean encountering the most favorable national market seen in recent years. For sellers, the most favorable months next year are likely to be March and April, when the market is projected to linger in neutral territory, before it starts to significantly favor buyers by June 2023.

43 sellers' markets by September 2023

RankMarketCurrent market statusForecasted market statusForecasted No. homes soldForecasted median days on marketForecasted median sale price
NationalNeutralFavors Buyers105,00036$414,000
1Fayetteville, N.C.Strongly Favors SellersStrongly Favors Sellers9007$235,000
2Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, Wash.Favors SellersFavors Sellers500N/A$605,000
3Akron, OhioFavors SellersFavors Sellers6009$210,000
4El Paso, TexasFavors SellersFavors Sellers4007$256,000
5Winston-Salem, N.C.Favors SellersFavors Sellers4007$270,000
6Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.Favors SellersFavors Sellers30015$240,000
7Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, Conn.Favors SellersFavors Sellers60022$339,000
8Rochester, N.Y.Favors SellersFavors Sellers3009$240,000
9Asheville, N.C.Favors SellersFavors Sellers40017$475,000
10Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, Wash.Favors SellersFavors Sellers500N/A$482,000
11Albuquerque, N.M.Favors SellersFavors Sellers40016$357,000
12Greensboro-High Point, N.C.Favors SellersFavors Sellers4008$277,000
13Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.Favors SellersFavors Sellers4,900N/A$735,000
14Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J.Favors SellersFavors Sellers500N/A$327,000
15Salisbury, Md.Favors SellersFavors Sellers30024$420,000
16Columbia, S.C.Favors SellersFavors Sellers50018$272,000
17Oklahoma City, Okla.Favors SellersFavors Sellers8009$251,000
18Savannah, Ga.Favors SellersFavors Sellers20019$308,000
19Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C.Favors SellersFavors Sellers70017$462,000
20Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.Favors SellersFavors Sellers9007$273,000
21Madison, Wis.Favors SellersFavors Sellers40022$383,000
22New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.Favors SellersFavors Sellers5,50029$626,000
23New Haven-Milford, Conn.Favors SellersFavors Sellers400N/A$339,000
24Grand Rapids-Kentwood, Mich.NeutralFavors Sellers7009$323,000
25Springfield, Mo.Favors SellersFavors Sellers3007$240,000
26Portland-South Portland, MaineFavors SellersFavors Sellers3007$515,000
27St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.Favors SellersFavors Sellers1,4007$266,000
28Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass.Favors SellersFavors Sellers70021$480,000
29Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn.Favors SellersFavors Sellers400N/A$595,000
30Worcester, Mass.-Conn.Favors SellersFavors Sellers6008$399,000
31Toledo, OhioFavors SellersFavors Sellers30033$176,000
32Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.Favors SellersFavors Sellers80011$255,000
33Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Ark.Favors SellersFavors Sellers2009$334,000
34Baton Rouge, La.Favors SellersFavors Sellers40014$240,000
35Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.Favors SellersFavors Sellers1,6008$692,000
36Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TexasFavors SellersFavors Sellers4,70022$381,000
37Milwaukee-Waukesha, Wis.Favors SellersFavors Sellers60032$313,000
38Cleveland-Elyria, OhioFavors SellersFavors Sellers1,10011$215,000
39Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.Favors SellersFavors Sellers9,20031$324,000
40Tulsa, Okla.Favors SellersFavors Sellers40010$254,000
41Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.NeutralFavors Sellers3,60021$350,000
42North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.NeutralFavors Sellers90017$520,000
43Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla.Favors SellersFavors Sellers3,00034$516,000

All 100 markets buyer-seller market status

MarketMarket status September 2021Current Market StatusMarket Status September 2023
NationalStrongly Favors SellersNeutralFavors Buyers
Akron, OhioStrongly Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Albuquerque, N.M.Strongly Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Asheville, N.C.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, Ga.Favors SellersNeutralFavors Sellers
Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TexasFavors SellersFavors BuyersStrongly Favors Sellers
Bakersfield, Calif.Strongly Favors SellersNeutralNeutral
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.Favors SellersFavors SellersNeutral
Baton Rouge, La.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Birmingham-Hoover, Ala.Favors SellersNeutralNeutral
Boise City, IdahoFavors SellersFavors BuyersFavors Buyers
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, Wash.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Buffalo-Cheektowaga, N.Y.Strongly Favors SellersFavors SellersNeutral
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.Strongly Favors SellersNeutralNeutral
Charleston-North Charleston, S.C.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Buyers
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.Strongly Favors SellersNeutralFavors Buyers
Chattanooga, Tenn.-Ga.Favors SellersFavors SellersNeutral
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.Strongly Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Cleveland-Elyria, OhioFavors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Colorado Springs, Colo.Strongly Favors SellersFavors BuyersStrongly Favors Sellers
Columbia, S.C.Strongly Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Columbus, OhioFavors SellersFavors SellersNeutral
Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla.Favors SellersNeutralNeutral
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TexasFavors SellersNeutralFavors Buyers
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.Strongly Favors SellersNeutralNeutral
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.Favors SellersNeutralFavors Buyers
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IowaStrongly Favors SellersFavors SellersNeutral
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich.Favors SellersFavors BuyersNeutral
Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
El Paso, TexasStrongly Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Fayetteville, N.C.Favors SellersStrongly Favors SellersStrongly Favors Sellers
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Ark.Strongly Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Grand Rapids-Kentwood, Mich.Favors SellersNeutralFavors Sellers
Greensboro-High Point, N.C.Strongly Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Greenville-Anderson, S.C.Strongly Favors SellersFavors SellersNeutral
Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, Conn.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TexasFavors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.Strongly Favors SellersFavors SellersNeutral
Jacksonville, Fla.Favors SellersFavors BuyersFavors Buyers
Kansas City, Mo.-Kan.Favors SellersNeutralNeutral
Killeen-Temple, TexasStrongly Favors SellersNeutralFavors Buyers
Knoxville, Tenn.Favors SellersNeutralNeutral
Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.Strongly Favors SellersNeutralFavors Buyers
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.Strongly Favors SellersFavors BuyersStrongly Favors Buyers
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.Favors SellersFavors BuyersFavors Buyers
Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Madison, Wis.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.Strongly Favors SellersNeutralNeutral
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Milwaukee-Waukesha, Wis.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.Favors SellersNeutralNeutral
Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C.-N.C.Favors SellersNeutralNeutral
Naples-Marco Island, Fla.Strongly Favors SellersFavors SellersNeutral
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tenn.Favors SellersFavors BuyersFavors Buyers
New Haven-Milford, Conn.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
New Orleans-Metairie, La.Favors SellersNeutralNeutral
New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.Strongly Favors SellersNeutralFavors Sellers
Ocala, Fla.Strongly Favors SellersNeutralNeutral
Ogden-Clearfield, UtahFavors SellersFavors BuyersStrongly Favors Buyers
Oklahoma City, Okla.Strongly Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, Wash.Strongly Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Omaha-Council Bluffs, Neb.-IowaFavors SellersFavors SellersNeutral
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.Strongly Favors SellersNeutralFavors Buyers
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif.Favors SellersNeutralFavors Buyers
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla.Favors SellersNeutralNeutral
Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, Fla.Strongly Favors SellersNeutralNeutral
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.Favors SellersNeutralFavors Sellers
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz.Strongly Favors SellersFavors BuyersStrongly Favors Buyers
Pittsburgh, Pa.Favors SellersNeutralNeutral
Port St. Lucie, Fla.Strongly Favors SellersNeutralNeutral
Portland-South Portland, MaineStrongly Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.Strongly Favors SellersNeutralFavors Buyers
Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Raleigh-Cary, N.C.Strongly Favors SellersFavors SellersNeutral
Reno, Nev.Strongly Favors SellersFavors BuyersFavors Buyers
Richmond, Va.Favors SellersNeutralFavors Buyers
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.Strongly Favors SellersFavors BuyersFavors Buyers
Rochester, N.Y.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Salisbury, Md.Strongly Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Salt Lake City, UtahFavors SellersFavors BuyersFavors Buyers
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TexasFavors SellersNeutralFavors Buyers
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, Calif.Favors SellersFavors BuyersFavors Buyers
San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif.Favors SellersFavors BuyersStrongly Favors Buyers
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.Favors SellersFavors BuyersFavors Buyers
Savannah, Ga.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Springfield, Mo.Strongly Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.Strongly Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.Strongly Favors SellersNeutralFavors Buyers
Toledo, OhioFavors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Tucson, Ariz.Favors SellersNeutralNeutral
Tulsa, Okla.Strongly Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Urban Honolulu, HawaiiStrongly Favors SellersNeutralNeutral
Winston-Salem, N.C.Strongly Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers
Worcester, Mass.-Conn.Strongly Favors SellersFavors SellersFavors Sellers

Buyer-Seller Market Index methodology

The Buyer-Seller Market Index was developed by Knock to measure the degree to which the nation's largest, most active housing markets favor home sellers or home buyers. It combines six measures of the housing market, covering six years of monthly data between January 2017 and September 2022.

By observing trends in these measures in major U.S. cities, the Index can forecast housing market conditions 12 months from now, helping homeowners, prospective home buyers and property investors make more educated decisions in the U.S. housing market. 

The index uses data on more than 150 million properties in the nation's 100 largest metro areas in terms of total home sales from the last six years. The data was obtained from housing database The Multiple Listing Service, using the National Association of Realtors' Real Estate Transaction Standards (RETS) API. 

Index values range from -4 to 4, with lower negative values indicating a relatively favorable market for buyers and higher positive values indicating a relatively favorable market for sellers. Index values ranging around zero denote a somewhat neutral market. Data is not seasonally adjusted. 

The six equally-weighted measures for the nation's top 100 markets (metros) each represent five years of monthly data:

1. Average sale to ask price ratio – Calculation: Average of each sale price / list price ratio 

2. Homes Sold – Number of homes sold

3. Inventory – Number of active listings

4. Median Days on Market – Median number of days between when a property is listed and when it is taken off the market (Median days on market data is not available for seven of the 100 largest markets (Boise, Idaho; Richmond, Virginia; Seattle; Allentown, Pennsylvania; Portland, Maine; New Haven, Connecticut; and Bridgeport, Connecticut.)

5. Median Sale Price – Middle of the sale price distribution

6. Months Supply – Calculation: # active listings / 6-month rolling average sales