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Saturday, October 1, 2022

U.S. September 2022 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report

 

Realtor.com

  • The national inventory of active listings increased by 26.9% over last year. 
  • The total inventory of unsold homes, including pending listings, increased by just 0.7% year-over-year due to a decline in pending inventory (-23.7%). 
  • Sellers are less active than last year, as newly listed homes declined by 9.8% on a year-over-year basis.
  • The median list price grew by 13.9% in September, a deceleration from recent highs.
  • Time on market was 50 days, 7 days more than last year but 18 days less than typical pre-pandemic levels.

Realtor.com®’s September housing data release reveals that the housing market is continuing to moderate, with homes selling less quickly than last year, home inventory growth stalling, and listing price growth slowing. However, homes are still selling more quickly than pre-pandemic days and price growth remains in the double-digits. This year, the final week of September was the best time to buy a home, and while sellers are hitting pause, buyers still on the market can expect less competition and slightly lower prices this fall.  

Home Listing Inventory Growth Stalls as Sellers Pause

Nationally, the inventory of homes actively for sale on a typical day in September increased by 26.9% over the past year. This amounted to 155,000 more homes actively for sale on a typical day in September compared to the previous year. The growth rate of inventory remained stable compared to last month’s growth rate of 26.9%.

Despite this improvement in the number of homes actively for sale, as the chart above clearly illustrates, active listings lag their pre-pandemic level and growth has stalled over the previous month. The number of homes actively for sale in September was 42.6% lower than the pre-pandemic 2017-2019 average.

The total number of unsold homes nationwide—a metric that includes both active listings and listings in various stages of the selling process that are not yet sold—was up only 0.7% year-over-year. Growth decelerated from last month’s 1.1% growth rate as the count of pending listings and newly listed homes fell further on a year-over-year basis.   

total home listing count

The total inventory of homes for sale includes homes in pending status, which are those  listings in various stages of the selling process that are not yet sold. The inventory of pending listings on a typical day has declined by 23.7% compared to last September. This is a further deceleration from the 22.2% annual decline we reported for August. This moderating buyer demand has been spurred by rising interest rates and continuously growing home list prices that have increased the cost of financing 80% of the typical home by 70% compared to a year ago.

pending home listing count

In September, newly listed homes declined by 9.8% compared to the same time last year, a lower rate of decline compared to last month’s 13.0% year-over-year decrease, but far shy of levels seen earlier this year. In August, seller sentiment continued to decline. Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) revealed that the net share of respondents saying now is a good time to sell decreased by 16 percentage points compared to the previous month and by 30 percentage points compared to last year. The HPSI survey also revealed that the net share of Americans who believe home prices will go up over the next 12 months decreased by 6 percentage points in August compared to the previous month. 

newly listed homes count

The inventory of homes actively for sale in the 50 largest U.S. metros overall increased by 37.2% over last year in September, outpacing the national growth rate. However, the inventory of homes in large Northeastern metros declined by 6.0% on average compared to last year, while other regions saw growth in the number of homes for sale. In the West, active listings grew most (by +64.2% year-over-year), followed by the South (+57.5%), and Midwest (+4.8%). No regions saw new listing activity above the previous year. Excluding New Orleans where data was impacted by Hurricane Ida last year, the South saw newly listed homes decline by 3.9% compared to the previous year, while they declined by 17.2% in the Northeast, 14.0% in the Midwest, and 12.2% in the West.  

Inventory increased in 36 out of 50 of the largest metros compared to last year. Metros which saw the most inventory growth include Phoenix (+167.3%), Raleigh (+166.1%), and Nashville (+125.3%). Inventory is still declining on a year-over-year basis in 11 markets including Hartford (-28.3%), Milwaukee (-19.0%), and Virginia Beach (-14.0%).

Only 8 of the 50 largest metros saw the number of newly listed homes increase compared to last year. The markets which reported the highest year-over-year growth in newly listed homes included Southern markets such as Nashville (+19.6%), Tampa (+9.2%) and Dallas (+9.1%). Markets which reported large declines in newly listed homes compared to last year include San Jose (-30.0%), Oklahoma City (-29.1%), and Hartford (-26.5%). 

Homes Sell Less Quickly Than Last Year but Faster Than Pre-Pandemic Days

The typical home spent 50 days on the market this September which is a full week more than last year. In August, homes sat on the market for four days longer than the previous year, the first time this happened since the early days of the pandemic. Nonetheless, homes still spent 18 fewer days on the market this September than typical 2017 to 2019 timing. 

In the 50 largest U.S. metros, the typical home spent 43 days on the market, a full week more than last September, with the slowdown matching the national rate. The time a typical home spends on the market increased across regions, with larger metros in the West seeing the greatest increase (+10 days), followed by the South (+6 days), Northeast (+5 days) and Midwest (+5 days).

Forty-five of the 50 largest metros saw time on market increase compared to the previous year. Time on market declined in New Orleans (-9 days) as last year’s figure was impacted by Hurricane Ida. The other markets where time on market declined were Richmond (-6 days), Miami (-2 days), Atlanta (-1 day), and Houston (-1 day). Time on market increased most in the southern and western metros of Austin (+23 days), Raleigh (+23 days), Las Vegas (+17 days) and Phoenix (+17 days).

Home Listing Time on Market

Price Growth Continues to Slow but Remains in Double-Digits

The median national list price declined to $427,000 in September, down from an all-time high of $449,000 in June. This represents an annual growth rate of 13.9%, a deceleration from last month’s growth rate of 15.4% and down from a peak growth rate of 18.2% in June. 

Median Home Listing Price

The share of homes having their price reduced grew from 11.0% last September to 19.5% this year. The share is now above 2017 and 2019 levels but still below the share of price reductions in September 2018 (21.2%). 

Share of Home Price Reductions

Active listing prices in the nation’s largest metros grew by an average of 10.2% compared to last year. Southern and Midwestern metros led the charge in active listing price growth, growing by 11.0% on average over the past year. Listing prices in the southern metros of Miami (+28.3%), and Memphis (+27.3%) grew the most among large metros, with Milwaukee (+27.0%) placing third. Western metros saw the greatest increase in the share of price reductions (+15.6 percentage points), followed by southern metros (+10.7 percentage points). Homes in Phoenix (+32.3 percentage points), Austin (+27.4 percentage points), and Las Vegas (+20.0 percentage points) showed the greatest growth in the share of homes with price reductions compared to last year. 

September 2022 Regional Statistics (50 Largest Metro Combined Average)

RegionActive Listing Count YoYNew Listing Count YoYMedian Listing Price YoYMedian Listing Price Per SF YoYMedian Days on Market Y-Y (Days)Price Reduced Share Y-Y (Percentage Points)
Midwest4.8%-14.0%11.8%8.4%+5 days+4.1 pp
Northeast-6.0%-17.2%8.2%5.6%+5 days+2.1 pp
South57.5%-3.9%11.8%10.3%+6 days+10.7 pp
West64.2%-12.2%7.3%6.6%+10 days+15.6 pp

 

September 2022 Housing Overview by Top 50 Largest Metros 

 

MetroMedian Listing PriceMedian Listing Price YoYMedian Listing Price per Sq. Ft. YoYActive Listing Count YoYNew Listing Count YoYMedian Days on MarketMedian Days on Market Y-Y (Days)Price Reduced SharePrice Reduced Share Y-Y (Percentage Points)
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga.$420,0006.1%7.0%46.4%-6.5%43-121.3%11.6 pp
Austin-Round Rock, Texas$558,0002.2%4.1%123.6%-3.5%512343.8%27.4 pp
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.$349,0004.2%4.7%-4.9%-25.2%42515.7%2.6 pp
Birmingham-Hoover, Ala.$282,0002.4%8.3%30.7%6.1%46414.5%6.4 pp
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.$742,00011.2%5.1%-1.6%-19.9%35614.9%3 pp
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, N.Y.$240,0004.3%7.4%8.6%-5.6%4659.0%1.9 pp
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.$420,0008.4%11.9%61.8%-10.8%431420.4%8.3 pp
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.$340,0003.0%0.8%-12.3%-21.9%41215.7%2.8 pp
Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.$325,0006.6%5.2%-11.9%-14.1%38313.0%1.1 pp
Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio$219,00010.3%8.9%6.1%-9.0%46316.8%4.8 pp
Columbus, Ohio$337,00016.6%10.7%10.4%-14.2%32820.2%5.8 pp
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas$454,00013.9%11.5%84.3%9.1%43827.0%16.2 pp
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.$625,0004.2%1.6%68.9%-14.6%361431.4%18.5 pp
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich.$264,0005.5%4.2%19.1%-8.0%401022.8%6.5 pp
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.$372,00012.9%4.3%-28.3%-26.5%3918.8%-0.5 pp
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas$376,0003.9%7.0%26.0%3.6%46-122.8%8.1 pp
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.$300,0007.1%9.9%44.1%-3.5%40321.1%9.8 pp
Jacksonville, Fla.$408,00013.2%13.3%84.4%-3.8%47925.7%15.9 pp
Kansas City, Mo.-Kan.$388,00020.9%14.9%26.8%-13.9%53814.7%4.6 pp
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.$460,0007.0%11.5%89.6%N/A*481736.1%20 pp
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.$949,0004.3%5.1%37.0%-19.5%47718.3%10.8 pp
Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.$300,00015.4%8.7%11.3%-12.4%37716.8%3.6 pp
Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.$316,00027.3%21.7%64.7%-1.0%43116.4%8.6 pp
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.$599,00028.3%15.0%11.2%-5.7%58-215.1%7.9 pp
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis.$355,00027.0%14.9%-19.0%-23.6%40316.0%-0.7 pp
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.$411,00017.5%8.0%-7.7%-22.1%41716.5%5.1 pp
Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, Tenn.$529,00018.6%12.5%125.3%19.6%311326.3%15.4 pp
New Orleans-Metairie, La.$329,000-2.3%-0.3%44.4%119.3%57-921.4%14.9 pp
New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.$656,0009.3%9.2%-8.8%-16.1%65410.0%2 pp
Oklahoma City, Okla.$320,00016.2%13.2%34.9%-29.1%48718.3%8.3 pp
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.$449,00018.2%17.4%78.9%-0.1%491222.4%12.4 pp
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.$335,0004.9%6.0%-2.4%-14.1%51415.2%3.5 pp
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.$494,0004.4%8.8%167.3%-8.2%471744.0%32.3 pp
Pittsburgh, Pa.$225,000-0.8%0.2%1.9%-17.7%51518.2%2.6 pp
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.$590,0007.3%6.3%45.9%-21.6%44125.8%9.3 pp
Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass.$477,0009.8%8.6%-9.0%-18.8%401011.2%3.2 pp
Raleigh, N.C.$463,0009.1%10.4%166.1%2.0%432319.8%12.2 pp
Richmond, Va.$380,0008.6%9.0%1.9%-15.8%44-611.0%3.6 pp
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.$579,0006.9%9.4%73.0%-13.7%511423.9%15.1 pp
Rochester, N.Y.$223,0006.0%8.7%-7.7%-7.5%25412.2%0.4 pp
Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif.$600,0001.9%3.3%51.6%-11.5%451230.0%18.9 pp
San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas$360,0009.0%8.6%63.7%2.9%481022.4%10.9 pp
San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.$888,00010.9%9.0%44.6%-17.8%40722.9%13.7 pp
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif.$1,089,0009.6%3.2%28.5%-17.0%38917.7%10.5 pp
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.$1,399,00010.8%4.6%21.0%-30.0%39816.2%9.1 pp
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.$762,00013.0%9.4%78.7%-12.6%401122.1%13.9 pp
St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.$275,00010.0%8.5%0.0%-9.6%45213.9%1.8 pp
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.$429,00017.2%12.2%109.5%9.2%44827.0%15.8 pp
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.$349,00016.3%9.8%-14.0%-13.5%37516.5%4.1 pp
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md.-W. Va.$570,00013.0%1.5%-2.8%-25.2%40616.7%3.9 pp

*Las Vegas new listings metrics excluded while data is under review.

Note: With the release of its September 2022 housing trends report, Realtor.com® incorporated a new and improved methodology for capturing and reporting housing inventory trends and metrics. The new methodology updates and improves the calculation of time on market and improves handling of duplicate listings. Most areas across the country will see minor changes with a smaller handful of areas seeing larger updates. As a result of these changes, the data released since October 2022 will not be directly comparable with previous data releases (files downloaded before October 2022) and Realtor.com® economics blog posts. However, future data releases, including historical data, will consistently apply the new methodology.