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Wednesday, December 20, 2023

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Grow in November, Ending Five-Month Slide

 By Amy Connolly

NAR’s chief economist says home prices keep moving higher. The median home sale price in the South was up 3.4% from last year to $351,500.

WASHINGTON – Existing-home sales grew in November, breaking a streak of five consecutive monthly declines, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). Among the four major U.S. regions, sales climbed in the South and Midwest but receded in the Northeast and West. All four regions experienced year-over-year sales decreases.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – elevated 0.8% from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.82 million in November. Year-over-year, sales fell 7.3% (down from 4.12 million in November 2022).

“The latest weakness in existing home sales still reflects the buyer bidding process in most of October when mortgage rates were at a two-decade high before the actual closings in November,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “A marked turn can be expected as mortgage rates have plunged in recent weeks.”

According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.95% as of Dec. 14, falling below 7% for the first time since Aug. 10. That's down from 7.03% the previous week but up from 6.31% one year ago.

Total housing inventory registered at the end of November was 1.13 million units, down 1.7% from October but up 0.9% from one year ago (1.12 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.6 months in October but up from 3.3 months in November 2022.

The median existing-home price for all housing types in November was $387,600, an increase of 4.0% from November 2022 ($372,700). All four U.S. regions posted price increases.

“Home prices keep marching higher,” Yun added. “Only a dramatic rise in supply will dampen price appreciation.”

Notable takeaways from November:

  • According to the monthly Realtors Confidence Index, properties typically remained on the market for 25 days in November, up from 23 days in October and 24 days in November 2022. Sixty-two percent of homes sold in November were on the market for less than a month.
  • About a third (31%) of November sales went to first-time homebuyers, up from 28% in October 2023 and November 2022. NAR's 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released on Nov. 4 – found that the annual share of first-time buyers was 32%.
  • Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 18% of homes in November, up from 15% in October and 14% one year ago.
  • Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented 1% of sales in November, virtually unchanged from last month and the previous year.

Also:

Single-family and Condo/Co-op Sales

  • Single-family home sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.41 million in November, up 0.9% from 3.38 million in October but down 7.3% from the prior year. The median existing single-family home price was $392,100 in November, up 3.5% from November 2022.
  • Existing condominium and co-op sales recorded a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 410,000 units in November, identical to October and down 6.8% from one year ago. The median existing condo price was $350,100 in November, up 8.6% from the previous year ($322,400).

Regional Breakdown

  • Existing-home sales in the South improved 4.7% from October to an annual rate of 1.77 million in November, a decline of 4.3% from the prior year. The median price in the South was $351,500, up 3.4% from last year.
  • Existing-home sales in the Northeast slipped 2.1% from October to an annual rate of 470,000 in November, down 13.0% from November 2022. The median price in the Northeast was $428,600, up 4.8% from the prior year.
  • In the Midwest, existing-home sales rose 1.1% from the previous month to an annual rate of 940,000 in November, down 8.7% from one year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $280,800, up 4.9% from November 2022.
  • In the West, existing-home sales slumped 7.2% from a month ago to an annual rate of 640,000 in November, down 8.6% from one year before. The median price in the West was $603,200, up 5.3% from November 2022.

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