Brokerage Redfin said national pending home sales are falling despite declining housing payments because buyers hope rates will fall further.
SEATTLE – The median U.S. monthly housing payment fell to $2,534 during the four weeks ending September 1, the lowest level since January and down nearly $300 from April's all-time high, according to a new report from Redfin. Housing payments are falling because even though home prices remain near record highs, weekly average mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest level in a year and a half.
But declining housing payments have yet to improve home sales. Pending homes sales fell 8.4% year over year, the biggest decline in nearly a year. Some would-be homebuyers are on the sidelines because they’re still priced out of the market and are waiting for mortgage rates to fall further.
Mortgage rates may not come down much more than they already have. That’s because markets have already priced in interest-rate cuts from the Fed, starting in September and going through 2025. If the cuts are smaller and slower than expected, mortgage rates would rise from where they are today. If the Fed cuts faster than expected, mortgage rates are likely to decline further. If rates do fall substantially more than they already have, that could push up demand, competition and home prices.
There are some signals that more prospective buyers are touring homes and prepping to purchase, even if they’re not yet buying. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 3% week over week. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index – a measure of tours and other buying services from Redfin agents – is up 4% from a month ago and is near its highest level since May.
The supply of homes for sale is increasing modestly. New listings of homes for sale are up 3.7% year over year, on par with increases over the last few months, and total listings are up 16.6%. Total supply is rising partly because some homeowners who had been locked in by their relatively low mortgage rates are selling now that rates have come down a bit. Also, sluggish homebuyer demand is causing unsold listings to pile up.
Source: Redfin
© 2024 Florida Realtors®
