Citizens Insurance Policies Could Go Below 900,000

 State regulators have approved as many as 649,000 policies for private insurers in October and November, another sign Florida’s insurance market is recovering.

TALLAHASSEE – Expecting a surge of policies going to private insurers, the state’s Citizens Property Insurance Corp. could have fewer than 900,000 policies at the end of the year. Citizens President and CEO Tim Cerio said Wednesday the policy count is projected to total 891,184 at the end of the year.

In the past, Cerio said the policy count was expected to dip below 1 million. Citizens had 1,257,924 policies as of Friday, but the projected decrease is tied to what is known as a “depopulation” program that shifts policies to private insurers.

State regulators have approved proposals by private insurers to take as many as 649,000 policies from Citizens in October and November, according to information presented Wednesday to the Citizens Board of Governors. The actual number of policies moving to private insurers likely will be lower than the maximum.

Citizens typically adds thousands of policies a week, but Cerio said increases in new policies have been lower than expected. Citizens was created as an insurer of last resort, but it has become the state’s largest insurer in recent years amid financial problems in the private market. Cerio said, however, the insurance market is recovering, resulting in private carriers taking policies.

©2024 The News Service of Florida. All rights reserved

Redfin: First improvement in affordability since 2020

 Housing affordability is improving for the first time in four years, an economist said. Buy now because it’s unlikely to become markedly cheaper in the near future.

WASHINGTON – The income needed to afford a home fell because mortgage rates posted their first annual decline in three years. The average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage dropped to 6.5% in August from 7.07% a year earlier, and has since fallen further, now sitting at 6.09%.

This is based on a Redfin analysis of the estimated median U.S. household income and median monthly housing payments as of August 2024. References to the “median-priced” home in August refer to the median sale price of homes that were purchased during the month. We consider a home affordable if a buyer taking out a mortgage spends no more than 30% of their income on their monthly housing payment.

“Housing affordability is improving for the first time in four years, so if you want to buy a home and can afford to, now could be a good time because it’s unlikely to become markedly cheaper in the near future,” said Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa. “Many house hunters are waiting to see if mortgage rates fall a lot further, but that probably won’t happen anytime soon. That’s because the Fed’s latest interest rate cut and its plans for future cuts were highly anticipated, meaning they’re already mostly priced into mortgage rates. When the Fed cuts short-term interest rates, long-term rates like mortgage rates don’t always move down nearly as much.”

Home prices also tend to go up over time, so waiting to buy likely means a higher price tag and down payment. It also may mean more competition because eventually, other buyers will realize rates probably won’t come down substantially more and will jump into the market.

Buyers still cost-burdened

While housing affordability improved in August, the average American household still can’t afford to buy a home. The typical household earns an estimated $83,853 per year, which is 27.4% less than the $115,454 they need to afford the typical house. A household on the median income would need to spend 41.3% of their earnings on housing to buy the median-priced home. Any household that spends over 30% is considered “cost-burdened.” Less than one-third of home listings are affordable for the typical U.S. household, down from more than half before the pandemic.

That’s likely one reason many househunters remain on the sidelines despite the drop in mortgage rates. Home prices are up 3% year over year and are just 2.1% below their all-time high, primarily because a shortage of homes for sale is keeping prices elevated. This is giving some buyers sticker shock. Other buyers are holding off because they’re confused about the new NAR rules or are waiting to see how the presidential election shakes out.

February 2021 was the last month on record when the typical household earned enough to afford the median priced home. Back then, the median household income was $69,021, or 5.7% more than the $65,308 needed to afford the typical home.

Source: Redfin

© 2024 Florida Realtors®

Florida Housing: New Listings Up, Prices Ease

 By Marla Martin

In Florida, new listings, inventory levels are up from a year ago for both single-family homes and condo-townhouses. 

Single-family median price eased 0.8% from a year ago, condo-townhouse median price is down 4.3%.

ORLANDO, Fla. – Florida’s housing market reported increased new listings, easing median sales prices and improved inventory levels (active listings) in August 2024 compared to a year ago, according to Florida Realtors®’ latest housing data.

“As home prices moderate and inventory levels improve, it should help increase new listings and offer more choices for potential homebuyers,” said 2024 Florida Realtors® President Gia Arvin, broker-owner with Matchmaker Realty in Gainesville. “Lower mortgage interest rates will also help boost buying power and ease affordability issues.”

Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor said, “In August, Florida’s single-family home market was fairly calm. Closed sales declined by 1.1% year-over-year, and as has been the case for most of the year, they have tracked pretty close to last year’s totals. Year to date through August, closed sales of single-family homes are down 1.7%.”

Closed sales of existing single-family homes statewide totaled 22,675, which is down 1.1% year-over-year, while existing condo-townhouse sales totaled 7,898, down 14.9% over August 2023, according to data from Florida Realtors Research Department in partnership with local Realtor boards/associations. Closed sales may occur from 30- to 90-plus days after sales contracts are written.

The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in August was $411,638, down slightly (up 0.8%) from a year ago, while the statewide median price for condo-townhouse units was $310,000, down 4.3% from August 2023. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

“New listings of single-family homes in August were up by 2.3% compared to a year ago, which is the smallest year-over-year increase we've seen for new listings of single-family homes this year,” O’Connor said. “Overall for the year, we are still up by nearly 14% in this category, but we should probably expect smaller year-over-year increases for the remainder of the year should the current pattern hold. Meanwhile, new condo-townhouse listings were up 1.8% year-over-year.

“Notice that new listings throughout this year have tracked more closely with the pre-pandemic years of 2018 and 2019 than they have with last year’s counts. But at the end of last year, new listings – which underperformed most of the year – improved to similar levels of what we were seeing in late 2018 and 2019. So, it would not be surprising to see this year's new listings toward the tail end of this year end up in the same neighborhood.”

On the supply side of the market, single-family existing homes were at a 4.5-months’ supply in August 2024, while condo-townhouse properties were at a 7.2-months’ supply.

© 2024 Florida Realtors®

Best Florida Cities to Retire

 By Jennifer Torres

Wallethub ranked four Florida cities – Miami, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale and Tampa – as the best for retirement due to lower taxes and high-quality healthcare.

MIAMI – With such celebrity residents as Oprah Winfrey, Jennifer Lopez and Jeff Bezos, the Sunshine is already a major magnet for the rich and famous. A recent study reveals retirees are also flocking to Florida, with four cities across the state snagging spots among the nation’s top five best places to retire.

To arrive at its ranking of the best states to retire, WalletHub compared the “retirement friendliness” of more than 180 U.S. cities across 45 key metrics ranging from the cost of living and tax laws to the availability of activities and the quality of health care.

Orlando, Florida claimed the top spot overall, followed by Miami in second place. Minneapolis, Minnesota came in third, followed by Florida’s own Tampa and Fort Lauderdale in fourth and fifth respectively. And out of the top 10, another Florida city, St. Petersburg, came in eighth place.

Orlando: Swapping snow shovels for sunshine

For those with their retirement sights set on Orlando, get ready to trade in your snow shovel for a set of golf clubs. With world-class theme parks, a vibrant arts scene and a plethora of dining and shopping options, your new backyard is essentially an endless vacation, with countless recreational options.

The average home price in Orlando is $385,207 and while the city doesn’t have a particularly low cost of living, with housing expenses 5% higher than the national average – utility prices are 6% lower than the national average and transportation expenses are 4% lower.

It also ranks at the top of the country when it comes to gerontologists and home health care facilities per capita. The Villages is also just under an hour’s drive from Orlando, a sprawling retirement suburb that’s become a widely popular destination for the over 55 set. The retirement mecca was recently named as the fourth most popular place in the U.S. to retire by Realtor.com®.

Miami: Retiring in style with sun, surf and sophistication

As the second-best place to retire on WalletHub’s list, Miami is a bit pricier, with an average home value of $587,252. But the city offers an abundance of activities popular with retirees – ranking at the top in the country when it comes to adult volunteer activities, art galleries and fishing facilities per capita. The city also has the fifth most museums and a large number of recreation and senior centers.

Miami is also home to some of the country’s most gorgeous beaches and many well-known healthcare facilities.

It’s also the fifth most walkable city in the country, with the majority of residents having access to quality public transportation within walking distance of their homes.

Tampa: Retiree life means smooth sailing

Last year, the city of Tampa came in first place on WalletHub’s 2023 list of the country’s best places to retire. This year it comes in at number four. Similar to Orlando, the average home price in Tampa is $385,903.

As for healthcare, Tampa General Hospital was recently named as one of the two best hospitals in Florida by U.S. News and World Report. There’s also plenty to do in Tampa, with numerous options for boating, sporting events, entrainment and fine dining.

And Sun City Center, Florida, a 55-plus community located just 30 minutes outside of Tampa, was recently selected as the most popular place in the U.S. to retire. According to Hannah Jones, an economic research analyst at Realtor.com, “It has the magic combo that aging populations prioritize: a warm beach and a big city nearby.”

With a variety of condos, duplexes and single family homes available, ranging from $50,000 to $350,000, the average price of a home in Sun City Center is $315,000 and everything is accessible by golf cart, including doctors’ offices, shopping, 11 golf courses, indoor and outdoor pools, a fitness center and a sports complex.

Fort Lauderdale: Blending luxury and relaxation

Located just a short drive away from Miami and West Palm Beach, in fifth place, Fort Lauderdale closed out the list of the country’s top five best places to retire.

With an abundance of housing options including high-rise condos, waterfront homes and gated communities, retirees have many options, but like Miami, the cost of living is higher, with an average home value of $529,481.

A number of well-known health care facilities are located within the city including the highly rated Holy Cross Health and it’s home to numerous boat marinas, golf courses, beaches, resorts and restaurants. There’s also horse racing at Gulfstream Park and gambling at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino.

Why is Florida such a retirement hot spot?

Of course, Florida offers 1,350 miles of coastline, warm, sunny weather (233 sunny days per year, on average) and an array of recreation and entertainment options, but the state also has no income tax, no estate tax and no inheritance tax – leading the Tax Foundation to rank Florida among the top five best states as part of its 2024 State Business Tax Climate Index, while California, New York and New Jersey rank among the worst.

Just before Amazon founder Jeff Bezos’ home state of Washington enacted a new state capital gains tax in 2022, Bezos sold about $15.7 billion worth of Amazon stock – sidestepping approximately $1.1 billion in taxes that would have been due under the new tax.

He then purchased two opulent estates in Miami’s Indian Creek Village, commonly referred to as “Billionaire Bunker,” where Florida’s tax laws offer Bezos another advantage; His heirs are now insulated from Washington’s estate tax, which stands as the highest in the nation at a top rate of 20%.

Bezos later purchased a third, $90 million property on the island to temporarily reside there as the demolition of the other houses he acquired on the island proceeds.

According to WalletHub, around 68% of workers are somewhat confident that they will have enough money to retire comfortably, but only 21% are very confident. As a result, more than half of people expect to retire at age 65 or later – and three-quarters expect to do some work even after retiring.

“It’s important to choose wisely when picking where to retire, as many retirees are on a fixed income,” WalletHub Analyst Chip Lupo, said. “As a result, the best cities for retired people are those that minimize taxes and expenses, as well as have good opportunities for retirees to continue paid work for extra income, if they choose to do so. In addition, the top cities provide high-quality health care and offer plenty of enjoyable activities for retirees.”

© 2024 Advance Local Media LLC. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Housing Payments at Lowest Level Since January

 Brokerage Redfin said national pending home sales are falling despite declining housing payments because buyers hope rates will fall further.

SEATTLE – The median U.S. monthly housing payment fell to $2,534 during the four weeks ending September 1, the lowest level since January and down nearly $300 from April's all-time high, according to a new report from Redfin. Housing payments are falling because even though home prices remain near record highs, weekly average mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest level in a year and a half.

But declining housing payments have yet to improve home sales. Pending homes sales fell 8.4% year over year, the biggest decline in nearly a year. Some would-be homebuyers are on the sidelines because they’re still priced out of the market and are waiting for mortgage rates to fall further.

Mortgage rates may not come down much more than they already have. That’s because markets have already priced in interest-rate cuts from the Fed, starting in September and going through 2025. If the cuts are smaller and slower than expected, mortgage rates would rise from where they are today. If the Fed cuts faster than expected, mortgage rates are likely to decline further. If rates do fall substantially more than they already have, that could push up demand, competition and home prices.

There are some signals that more prospective buyers are touring homes and prepping to purchase, even if they’re not yet buying. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 3% week over week. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index – a measure of tours and other buying services from Redfin agents – is up 4% from a month ago and is near its highest level since May.

The supply of homes for sale is increasing modestly. New listings of homes for sale are up 3.7% year over year, on par with increases over the last few months, and total listings are up 16.6%. Total supply is rising partly because some homeowners who had been locked in by their relatively low mortgage rates are selling now that rates have come down a bit. Also, sluggish homebuyer demand is causing unsold listings to pile up.

Source: Redfin

© 2024 Florida Realtors®

US: Ultra-Luxury Home Sales to Set New Record

 Billionaires globally have seen their wealth boom, spurring major home purchases and agents’ optimism. Some are buying plots of land in Florida to build large estates.

WASHINGTON – A $115 million purchase of a duplex high above New York’s Central Park in June ended a nearly two-year drought for the city’s ultra-luxury real estate market.

The closing was ultimately a turning point. Less than a month later, a nearby five-story penthouse went for $135 million.

With more than four months of the year still to go, home sales of $100 million or more are on pace to set a new record in the city. Billionaires globally have seen their wealth boom, generating momentum for major home purchases. The pace of sales is spurring optimism among agents tasked with finding buyers for other top listings around the US.

Nationwide, there have been six deals at $100 million or above this year through the end of July, just three shy of a record set in 2021. Those have stretched from Southern California, where an oceanfront estate notched a record for the state at $210 million, to Aspen, Colorado – where a transaction this year crossed the nine-figure threshold for the first time.

The pace of ultra-luxury deals isn’t expected to let up anytime soon. Over in Malibu, one agent is preparing to put a mansion up for sale in a private listing for $300 million, which would set a record for the most expensive US home sale if it gets an offer at that level. Another agent in the area, Aaron Kirman, said he’s working with a few buyers who are looking for mega-mansions in Los Angeles or Malibu, and also has a pair of nine-figure listings, including a $115 million European-style villa in Bel Air.

“I’ve had more billionaires call me so far this year for $100 million homes than I had in the whole of last year,” said Kirman, who is chief executive officer of Christie’s International Real Estate Southern California. “They want what they want when they want it – and they’re willing to pay for it.”

While the pool of potential buyers is still small, top-tier billionaires have watched their wealth swell over the past few years. In early January, the median net worth of the world’s 500 richest people was $9.3 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. By August, it was almost $9.9 billion, meaning a $100 million home purchase would account for just about 1% of their wealth.

Now, there are even more homes for them. As the wealth of billionaires boomed, construction started on various projects catering to the richest, and many of those properties are becoming available. Plus, business titans including Jeff Bezos and Ken Griffin are becoming even more strategic about their massive real estate portfolios, finding ways to snap up plots of land in Florida to create even larger estates for their families.

“Clearly there’s demand, which seems to be increasing,” said John Gomes, co-founder of the Eklund Gomes Team at Douglas Elliman Real Estate. “There is definitely an upward trajectory, and we might even double this year what we did last year.”

Bargain-hunting billionaires

Sky-high listing prices won’t mean that the property always sell for that much. Both New York sales ultimately went for less than what the sellers initially asked.

The transaction at Central Park Tower closed in June for about $60 million less than the $175 million Extell Development listed it for last year. In July, Vladislav Doronin shelled out $135 million for the very top floors of a project he’d developed, the Aman New York. That figure was lower than the $180 million that a different buyer reportedly agreed to pay for the unit in 2018.

While some billionaires are looking for relative bargains, others have very specific demands and are willing to pay up to get what they want, said Fredrik Eklund, who worked with Gomes and Kent Wu to bring an undisclosed buyer to the Central Park Tower deal.

“They have their eyes on something and they only want that,” Eklund said. “They overpay or not – it doesn’t matter.”

Some of the richest homeowners have been stitching together massive estates through multiple expensive sales. In Florida, Bezos paid $147 million last year in separate transactions for two neighboring properties on Indian Creek island and agreed to buy another for $90 million in April.

Jills Zeder Group founder Jill Hertzberg worked with Griffin to stitch together adjacent parcels on Star Island that cost a combined $194 million. Now, she said, he’s being offered double or even triple what he paid for the assemblage but isn’t going to sell.

“He’s not interested,” she said. “Someone like him had the foresight when no one else was doing it.”

‘Master of the universe’ residences

The richest buyers are often interested in new homes, according to Hertzberg. But if they can’t find one that a developer or occupant is willing to sell, some are more open to knocking the buildings down and starting over instead of renovating the old properties, she said.

“It used to be when I first came to Miami Beach, people renovated these old Mediterraneans, the Art Decos,” Hertzberg said. “And then people started coming in with star architects who would say, ‘No, let’s take it down.’”

She expects her $132 million listing of four adjacent homes on La Gorce Island in Biscayne Bay to close in the coming weeks, with one buyer purchasing three and another acquiring the fourth. The larger transaction will fall just short of nine figures.

For buyers looking for newly built properties, there are more options under construction. A penthouse at Miami Beach’s forthcoming Shore Club Private Collection went into contract for more than $120 million in March. If it closes at that price when the building is completed in a few years, it would double the record for a Miami-area condo set by Griffin in 2015.

“The supply is finally coming,” Eklund said. “Every single project that we’re working on, we are doing these master-of-the-universe kind of residences on the top.”

© 2024 Penton Media

Report: Corporate Investors Own Over 117,000 Florida Homes

 Critics say large corporations are driving up home prices and reducing affordability for residential buyers. Many have private equity or Wall Street ties.

TAMPA, Fla. – A recent analysis by the Tampa Bay Times showed that corporate investors in Florida own over 117,000 single-family homes, which some say has led to higher prices and reduced affordability in the market for some potential home buyers. Others say it has allowed corporations to have greater control over communities.

The analysis also found that investment firms with ties to private equity or Wall Street own more than 10% of Florida's single-family rentals. Experts expect this trend to continue.

In one example, Lennar Homes sold about 100 homes in The Enclave at Twin Rivers neighborhood in Parrish to Invitation Homes, an investment company that owns thousands of properties across the state. Invitation Homes then installed two of its employees on the three-person homeowners association board. Invitation's spokeswoman said that its goal "is to be part of a community, not in control of it."

Meanwhile, previous analyses show that investors owned 27,000 homes across Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco counties. Other hot markets for investors have been the suburbs of Jacksonville and Orlando, as well as the Interstate-4 corridor.

Source: Axios (09/03/24) Varn, Kathryn

© 2024 Florida Realtors®

Florida Consumer Sentiment at 3-Year High

 Floridians in August remained cautious about the current economic conditions but expressed optimism about their personal finances and the national economy.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. – Consumer sentiment among Floridians rose for the third consecutive month in August, reaching its highest level in the past three years at 76.4 points, up 1.6 points from a revised figure of 74.8 in July. Similarly, national consumer sentiment also increased after four months of consecutive declines.

“Floridians grew more optimistic in August, driven by increased confidence in their personal financial situation and the national economy over the next year. Recent data shows that annual inflation fell below 3% in July. While employment figures have been revised downward, indicating a cooler labor market, second-quarter real GDP growth was revised up from 2.8% to 3% due to stronger consumer spending. Moreover, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September to prevent further weakening of the labor market. Overall, a soft landing seems achievable, matching the positive consumer expectations," said Hector Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Among the five components that make up the index, three increased and two decreased. 

Floridians’ opinions about current economic conditions were pessimistic in August. Views of personal financial situations now compared with a year ago decreased 1.2 points from 60.1 to 58.9. Similarly, opinions as to whether now is a good time to buy a major household item, such as furniture or a refrigerator, declined 3.1 points from 62 to 58.9, marking the largest decrease in this month’s readings. Notably, these downward readings were shared across all sociodemographic groups in Florida.

In contrast, the three components related to Floridians’ expectations about future economic conditions were positive. Expectations of personal finances a year from now increased 3.9 points from 88.7 to 92.6. Outlooks for U.S. economic conditions over the next year saw the largest increase this month, rising 5.2 points, from 78.4 to 83.6. Similarly, expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years rose 3.1 points, from 85 to 88.1. These positive trends were shared across all sociodemographic groups, except for individuals age 60 and older, who expressed more pessimistic views about the country’s economic prospects over the next five years.

“It’s worth noting that Floridians’ expectations regarding their personal financial situation and the national economy over the next year are at their highest levels in three years. Moreover, expectations concerning the national economy over the next five years are nearly at a four-year high. These positive expectations suggest that Floridians anticipate continued economic stability and growth, which could lead to increased consumer spending, attract investment, and support business expansion,” said Sandoval.

“Looking ahead, while consumer sentiment tends to fluctuate during election years, the potential for lower interest rates could ease borrowing costs and support a continued upward trend in consumer sentiment,” said Sandoval.

Conducted July 1 to August 29, the UF study reflects the responses of 255 individuals who were reached on cellphones and 273 individuals reached through an online panel, a total of 528 individuals, representing a demographic cross section of Florida. The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is a 2, the highest is 150.

© 2024 Florida Realtors®