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Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Florida Chamber: State Population to Slow in 2024
By Amy Connolly
The chamber also said the housing market will begin to stabilize to a new normal, and home prices will no longer spike.
TALLAHASSEE – The state’s population will grow in 2024, but not as much as the previous year, and the population demographics will shift, Florida Chamber Foundation economists and researchers said during the organization’s annual economic outlook summit.
The chamber said the state will grow by 225,000 to 275,000 net new residents in 2024, which is slower than last year. Residents age 70+ will grow at a faster clip than in the 20 to 65 age range, the organization said.
With the population declines for those age 9 and under, ages 25 to 35 and ages 50 to 60, the gap in the talent supply is widening as essential working age populations move out.
At the same time, Florida is creating one in every 13 U.S. jobs, is growing by 1,000 people per day and has the lowest debt per capita of any state.
“Florida leads the nation in several important categories and has become the national model for economic growth,” Florida Chamber Foundation President and CEO Mark Wilson said at the 2024 Florida Economic Outlook & Jobs Solution Summit. “As Florida continues to experience extraordinary economic and population growth, it is essential our job creators continue uniting around the right long-term solutions to secure Florida’s future.”
The Solution Summit, which took place Thursday, included a 2024 Florida economic forecast, a national economic outlook and insight into Florida’s evolving workforce needs, housing trends, population growth, research and development potential and more.
The organization also expects the state’s housing market to stabilize to a “new normal.” In 2024, active listings will remain high and begin leveling off, chamber leaders said.
“Similarly, median housing prices are not expected to decline, but will also not see the same rapid spikes as in recent years. The median listing price is predicted to be $415,000 to $450,000 and the median rental estimate will be in the range of $1,450 to $1,650,” chamber leaders said.
Other insights from the summit include:
Annual job growth will continue to outpace the nation: Florida’s job growth in 2023 remained an average of 1.1% higher than the national level and has not been slower than the U.S. since 2017. Rapid economic growth in many areas of Florida’s economy, as well as high levels of population growth, fuels the prediction that Florida will remain on top of the country in job growth.
Florida will continue growing at a faster pace than any other state: Florida’s GDP grew 9.3% over 2023, the fastest rate in the country. Florida has the fastest growth over the last four years, a long-term trend the organization expects to continue in 2024.
Florida’s economic growth will remain positive but will slow to more sustainable levels: With national economists split on the potential of a national recession in 2024, the Florida Chamber Foundation does not predict that Florida will experience a recession. Florida’s GDP is expected to grow by 7%, higher than the national average.
There will be small interest rate cuts towards the second half of 2024: The Florida Chamber Foundation expects possible interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. However, the minor cuts are not anticipated to make a large impact on inflation in Florida, as inflation rates in parts of Florida currently exceed the national average.
Florida will see 100,000 to 150,000 new jobs in 2024: The trend of slowing job growth experienced over the last few months of 2023 will persist this year. Overall job growth for 2024 will be between 1.0% and 1.5%. Slowing growth, or even declines, will be prominent in the professional business services, financial activities and information industries, while high growth will occur in the education and health services industry.
Florida will continue to lead the nation in income migration: Most recent income migration figures showed $39.2 billion in net income migration to Florida. The Florida Chamber Foundation expects that figure to continue increasing as people from other states relocate to Florida for economic opportunity, no state income tax and other reasons.