It won't come as a surprise to many of the Sunshine State's residents, but Florida became the nation's fastest-growing state as of the conclusion of 2022, according to the U.S. Census. It is the first time the state has held that title for 65 years - dating all the way back to 1957. While the area has always been one of America's growth regions, the pace has accelerated in recent years.
These changes were evident in Florida's real estate market, where prices surged at a rate higher than much of the nation at the end of 2021 and throughout 2022. Home inventories reached crisis levels at the start of 2022, with fewer homes on the market than at any point in the last 20 years. This drove prices even higher, though they have since retreated marginally.
Still, with the state's growth not expected to stop any time soon, the state government is expected to face more challenges in the coming years.
Stresses
Housing affordability was already a worrisome area for Florida prior to the real estate price surge. With the influx of residents pushing prices higher, that concern has only grown. Stories have begun surfacing of seemingly middle-class residents and their families living in cars or approaching total homelessness. In more expensive areas, like Collier County, workers in the area are stating they can no longer afford to live there, threatening the service industry that Florida's tourism-based economy depends on.
Due to its abnormally large retirement-age population, Florida's workforce participation figures are already some of the worst in the nation. In some of the areas with the highest number of retirees, like Collier County, that figure is as low as 47%. This creates a uniquely difficult problem for the workforce: tending to the needs of a large population and an ever-increasing tourist population using a consistently declining number of workers. In the areas where housing costs prohibit many service workers from living nearby, the problems become exacerbated.
There are also concerns that a larger population could also place an undue burden on the state's medical and educational facilities. For students, who are already lagging behind due to education shortfalls during the pandemic, finite resources being spread among more and more pupils could risk negative impacts on their learning progress. It's not all bad news in that department, however: while Florida's assessment scores dropped, so did the rest of the nation. Florida actually fared slightly better than most despite still trending in the wrong direction.
Of particular concern due to the state's large elderly population is the increasing burden on the healthcare system. Florida's healthcare is already middling in rank and, like many states, was pushed beyond its limits during the global pandemic. The nation's demographics overall are that of an aging population, so some additional strain is expected nationwide. Florida, however, can expect more severe impacts due to the region's constant influx of new retirees while its existing ones continue to get older.
The 1985 Growth Management Act was passed during a period of similar growing pains and took steps to ensure that each locality and county had concrete plans to deal with the expansion of their communities. While some of those measures remain in effect today (most Florida counties do have a growth management department), the demographics and needs of the 1985 population are much different than those of today. The '85 legislation also focused more on environmental protections than it did on pragmatic and practical manners of government operation.
One thing remains certain amidst all this unpredictability: the state will continue growing. What remains to be seen is whether the housing market and state government can accommodate that growth while maintaining living standards for the current population. Only time will tell. In the meantime, expect to see more construction in your area, and soon.
