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Wednesday, November 29, 2023

1 in 3 Buyers Uses Cash – Highest Share in a Decade

 By Kerry Smith

In Florida, cash sales dropped year-to-year in only one metro: Fort Lauderdale. The percentage of cash sales ranged from 38.2% in Tampa to 49% in West Palm Beach.

SEATTLE – Just over one-third (34.1%) of U.S. home purchases in September were made in cash, up from 29.5% a year earlier and the highest share in nearly a decade, according to a report from Redfin.

In Florida, the percentage of cash sales was higher than the national average of 34.1% in all six metros included in the study, ranging from 38.2% in Tampa to 49.0% in West Palm Beach

Percentage of September cash sales by Florida metro

  • Fort Lauderdale: 40.5%, down 0.5 percentage points year-to-year
  • Jacksonville: 46.2%, up 3.2 points
  • Miami: 40.7%, up 2.0 points
  • Orlando: 40.0%, up 0.6 points
  • Tampa: 38.2%, up 0.2 points
  • West Palm Beach: 49.0%, up 0.8 points

All-cash purchases are making up a bigger piece of the homebuying pie for two major reasons. Affluent Americans who can already afford to pay cash are more apt to do so in such an expensive housing market – and higher rates are pushing other buyers to consider alternative methods that allow them to pay cash at the closing table. Elevated mortgage rates make buying a home in cash and avoiding interest altogether more attractive.

“High mortgage rates are exacerbating inequality between people who own homes and people who don’t,” says Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari. “Home prices are roughly 40% higher now than before the pandemic homebuying boom, and soaring mortgage rates have made the divide even bigger by adding more to monthly payments.

“Affluent Americans are the only ones who can avoid the sting of high mortgage rates … Meanwhile, those who are sidelined by high prices and rates not only can’t afford a home now, but they’re not building wealth through homeownership for the future.”

September report takeaways

  • The typical U.S. homebuyer’s down payment was equal to 16.1% of the purchase price in September, up from 15% a year earlier, and the highest down-payment percentage since June 2022.
  • The median down payment was $60,980, up roughly 15% year-to-year and the biggest increase since June 2022.
  • FHA loans are more common than during the pandemic homebuying boom because sellers receive fewer offers – just over 15% of mortgaged home sales in September, up from 14% a year earlier.
  • 6.3% of mortgaged sales used a VA loan, down just marginally from 6.8% a year earlier.
  • 78.5 % of mortgage purchases were conventional loans, down slightly from 79.2% a year earlier.

© 2023 Florida Realtors®

FHFA: 2024 Conforming Loan Limits Rise to $766,550

 By Kerry Smith

In 2024, a conventional mortgage in most parts of Florida (except Monroe County) will have a loan limit of $766,550, an increase of $40,350 from 2023’s $726,200.

WASHINGTON – The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced the conforming loan limit values (CLLs) for mortgages to be purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2024 – more than half of all U.S. loans.

In Florida and most of the United States, the 2024 CLL value for one-unit properties will be $766,550, an increase of $40,350 from 2023.

Limits for other types of loans – FHA, VA, Rural Housing, etc. – are generally announced later.

The Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) requires FHFA to adjust the Enterprises’ baseline CLL value each year to reflect changed in the average U.S. home price, and FHFA made the announcement immediately after releasing its third quarter 2023 FHFA House Price Index (FHFA HPI) report. The 2024 increase is based on the increase in average U.S. home values over the previous four quarters.

According to FHFA’s data, house prices increased 5.56%, on average, between the third quarters of 2022 and 2023. Therefore, the baseline CLL in 2024 increases by the same percentage.

High-cost areas

For areas in which 115% of local median home values exceed the baseline – in most of Florida’s Monroe County, for example – the applicable loan limit is higher than the baseline limit. HERA also establishes the high-cost area limit, with a ceiling at 150% of the baseline limit.

The new ceiling loan limit in highest-cost areas for one-unit properties will be $1,149,825, which is 150% of $766,550.

Special statutory provisions establish different loan limits for Alaska, Hawaii, Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands. In these areas, the baseline loan limits will be $1,149,825 for one-unit properties.

Other loan limit resources

© 2023 Florida Realtors®

Monday, November 27, 2023

Home Sales Likely to Improve in 2nd Half of 2024

 Fannie Mae researchers: Mortgage rates in 2024 will retreat from recent highs and average 6.8% by year’s end; in turn, home sales will increase modestly over the year.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Economic growth remains likely to decelerate and ultimately result in a mild recession in 2024, followed by a return to growth in 2025, according to the November 2023 commentary from the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group.

While the combination of ongoing employment gains and decelerating inflation has increased the likelihood of a soft landing, the ESR group contends that, between a likely slowdown in consumption growth stemming from an imbalance between spending and incomes and the rising real federal funds rate weighing on consumer and business activity, a downturn remains the most likely outcome.

With mortgage rates having previously neared the 8% mark, the ESR Group expects existing home sales to decline further in the near term but bottom out in early 2024.

Regardless of whether the economy manages a soft landing or enters a mild recession, the ESR Group forecasts mortgage rates in 2024 to retreat from their recent highs and average 6.8% by the fourth quarter.

As such, it expects home sales to begin to increase modestly over 2024 but to remain constrained by the likely persistence of the so-called “lock-in effect” and the low supply of homes for sale. New home sales and starts, which have remained comparatively resilient over the past year, are expected to remain so in 2024.

“The economy is now slowing from the otherwise robust first estimate of third quarter growth,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist. “The slowdown in employment gains has continued, and stress is growing on consumers’ ability to sustain their high levels of spending unsurprising results that we attribute to the often-lagged economic effect of monetary policy tightening.

“At the same time, housing has been and continues to be under serious affordability pressure, resulting in recessionary-level home sales activity. While many current owners with low mortgage rates will likely continue to be discouraged from listing their homes, we expect mortgage rates to trend modestly downward in 2024, which should help kickstart a gradual recovery in home sales into 2025.”

About the ESR Group: Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Doug Duncan, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.

Note: Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae’s ESR group should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae’s business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice.

© Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group

Thursday, November 2, 2023

Condo Reserve Rules Push Some Toward Foreclosure

 By Anthony Man

Some fixed-income condo residents in older buildings must pay for expensive deferred-maintenance repairs as they watch their property insurance costs rise.

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – The one-two punch of the post-Surfside law designed to require condominium associations to set aside sufficient reserves for structural repairs combined with Florida’s unending increases in insurance costs is threatening to produce a wave of foreclosures.

“People are going to be losing their homes. Foreclosures are increasing,” warned Broward County Commissioner Mark Bogen. “As it looks right now, there are going to be so many people unable to live in their homes.”

The concerns are coming from across Broward County.

Bogen represents northern Broward, including Wynmoor Village, the large condominium community in Coconut Creek. And in his non-elected job, as a lawyer, he does a lot of work on condo issues.

“The condos have been hit hard,” said state Rep. Robin Bartleman, who represents southwest Broward. “You can’t walk into Century Village right now without hearing” concerns.

At another condominium, in Miramar, Bartleman said residents have to pay assessments for roof work, more money for higher condominium association insurance, and assessments to increase reserves.

The ultimate result, she predicted: “We’re going to have foreclosures all across this county.”

The elected officials who discussed the issues at two workshops last week aren’t promising comprehensive fixes – especially not fixes that will produce quick, dramatic change.

As far as easing the impact of the reserve requirements on condominiums, state Sen. Jason Pizzo, chair of the Broward Legislative Delegation, was blunt: “There is not going to be a state bailout as it relates to condominiums at all. There won’t be.”

Surfside changed things

For decades, many condominiums didn’t set aside enough money to pay for future long-term maintenance costs, and the consequences were vividly illustrated by the 2021 collapse of the Champlain Towers South in Surfside in which 98 people were killed.

State law was changed in the aftermath of the disaster. “Surfside was certainly a wakeup call,” said state Rep. Chip LaMarca of Lighthouse Point.

The new law potentially means large payments to boost reserve accounts, which are equivalent to rainy-day funds to cover large, expensive repairs, and probable special assessments to fund major structural repairs. It goes into effect in 2025.

Bogen and County Commissioner Steve Geller said they’d like to see some delay in the ramping up of reserves.

Geller said some changes are needed. “But I hope that those changes would not include repeal of the law, because there really is a problem with these condominiums with their structural soundness,” he said.

Associations have often voted to waive setting aside money for reserves, something the new law prohibits for funding for projects related to structural integrity such as the roof, load bearing walls, electrical systems, plumbing, windows and foundations, among other items.

Geller recalled his time representing Hallandale Beach in the state Legislature in the 1980s and 1990s. Some residents didn’t want to pay at the time for problems they hoped would have to be addressed after they were no longer alive.

“I would go to people and say, ‘You know, you need to stop waiving your reserve….’ They would say, ‘young man, young man, I’m 77 years old. I’m not going to worry about what’s going to happen in 10 years. Let my children worry about it because they’ll own the condo then. And the problem is that we had so many people that just kept waiving and waiving and waiving.”

Geller said he’d like to see some extra time. “You can’t go from 40 years of ignoring it (and) say you must be in full compliance in five years. So I think the solution that makes sense is just to stretch out that period,” he said.

But, he added, the deadline to start saving shouldn’t be pushed off. “If you just extend it for five years, they’ll still do nothing until the fifth year.”

LaMarca said “lengthening the glide path” for repairs issues identified in a condominium’s structural reserve study “would be helpful.”

All of Broward’s elected county commissioners and state legislators are Democrats, except for LaMarca. He’s a member of the minority party in Broward and the overwhelming Republican majority that controls the state Legislature.

Other fixes

Several other steps were advocated by legislators and commissioners.

LaMarca said he expects more money to be devoted to the My Safe Florida Home program, through which the state pays for inspections and subsidies homeowners making upgrades to make them more resilient to storms. Previous funding has already been obligated, LaMarca said.

“We do need to, in my mind, put some more resources there,” he said.

Pizzo, who represents eastern Broward and northeastern Miami-Dade counties, said condominiums should be allowed to invest reserves instead of keeping them in no-interest accounts. And he said more financing options could be explored for financing structural upgrades.

Insurance

Geller and several other elected officials said they are hearing even more about the impact of ever-increasing insurance costs.

County Commissioner Hazelle Rogers said some are struggling to pay their premiums. She said some older residents who own their own homes outright after having paid off their mortgages are opting against carrying insurance.

State Rep. Patricia Williams, who represents the north-central part of the county, said she, too, is hearing mostly about insurance.

“I get emails after emails every day,” citing one mother of five who said she did not know what she would do after receiving a bill for a 300% premium increase. “At this point, all I can say is we’re working on it.”

The insurance industry and the Legislature have asserted that excessive litigation in Florida is a major factor in driving up insurance premiums. The Legislature responded by restricting people’s rights to sue their insurance companies, but it’s unclear if that will result in any reduction in the rapid increases in premiums.

Pizzo said is unlikely. He said Citizen Insurance Co., the state-backed insurer of last resort, has 1.4 million policies, and 22,000 open litigation cases, which is about 1.7%. He said the notion that litigation is driving insurance premiums is part of a narrative that is “just proving not to be true.”

Combined effects and fixed incomes

Bartleman said the higher condominium costs coming as insurance prices are going up is squeezing many people, especially older people on fixed incomes. Many, she said, can’t afford an extra $100 or $200 a month.

“If you didn’t have the (cost of the reserve) that would be fine. But now put the insurance crisis on top of that and then put having to replace your roofs because you can’t get insurance without replacing our roofs, it’s crippling and we’re going to have foreclosures all over this county.”

The complications could have a ripple effect for the broader South Florida economy, Deerfield Beach Commissioner Tood Drosky, president of the Broward League of Cities, said in a separate workshop with state lawmakers.

“I’ve had residents that have moved to Deerfield Beach from outside the state and they love it here. And they say ‘I didn’t realize it was going to go up so fast and I’m almost regretting coming to Florida,” Drosky said.

“I don’t want that to happen, but we’re going to price out those that have moved here and made Florida their home and the middle class that has been here that we’re going to somehow going to squeeze out and move to other parts of the state.”

State Rep. Daryl Campbell, who represents a central Broward district that straddles Interstate 95, said the outcome for others is potentially even worse. As housing and insurance costs escalate, he said some people are losing their homes and have no place to go.

Campbell said “homelessness is not looking like how we typically would have it in our mind, where you’re panhandling on the side of the road. Homelessness is looking like five, 10 cars outside of one home or apartment complex or couch surfing or even people sleeping in their cars in Walmart parking lot.”

© 2023 South Florida Sun-Sentinel. Visit sun-sentinel.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Information from Sun Sentinel archives was used in this report.

Citizens Insurance to Transfer 125,000 Policies

 Four private insurance companies received state approval to move policies, though the actual number will likely be lower. Slide will take the most – up to 75,000.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – On Tuesday, Florida regulators approved proposals by four insurance companies to take as many as 125,000 policies from Citizens Property Insurance Corp., the state “insurer of last resort,” in January. The number of policies that shift from Citizens to the private insurers likely will be lower than the approved totals.

Insurance Commissioner Michael Yaworsky signed the four orders, part of what is known as a “depopulation” program aimed at shrinking Citizens.

According to information posted on the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation website, the orders allow:

  • Slide Insurance Co. to assume as many as 75,000 policies from Citizens
  • Florida Peninsula Insurance Co. to assume as many as 30,000 policies
  • Edison Insurance Co. to assume as many as 10,000 policies
  • US Coastal Property & Casualty Insurance Co. to assume as many as 10,000 policies

State leaders have long sought to move policies from Citizens into the private market, in part because of concerns about financial risks if a major hurricane or multiple hurricanes hit Florida. Under Citizens, all Florida residents share in the risk should a major event occur.

Citizens saw explosive growth during the past three years as many insurers dropped customers and raised rates because of financial problems.

As of Friday, Citizens had 1.331 million policies, according to its website – but that number is down from 1.412 million earlier in October because five private insurers assumed 99,773 Citizens policies in mid-October as part of the depopulation program.

Regulators also approved a series of proposals by private insurers to take out additional policies in November and December.

© 2023 The News Service of Florida. All rights reserved.

Friday, October 27, 2023

Short ‘Days on Market’ Shifts to the North

 By Kerry Smith

Albany, N.Y., homes went under contract in 8 days in Sept., followed by Rochester (9) and Grand Rapids, Mich. (9). In 8 Florida metros, it ranged from 25-58 days.

SEATTLE – The U.S. supply-demand balance for real estate has shifted over the past year. In Albany, N.Y., the typical home sold in September went under contract in just eight days, making it the fastest market in the country, according to a report from Redfin. Next came Rochester, N.Y. (9), Grand Rapids, Mich., (9) Buffalo, N.Y. (11), San Jose, Calif. (12) and Seattle (12).

In all eight Florida metros included in the study, time-on-market grew year-to-year, with a low in Tampa of 25 days and a high in West Palm Beach of 58 days.

Florida metro – Median days on market – year-to-year change

  1. West Palm Beach – 58 days, 8 days longer year-to-year
  2. Miami – 51 days, no change year-to-year
  3. Fort Lauderdale – 51 days, 5 days longer year-to-year
  4. Jacksonville – 44 days, 8 days longer year-to-year
  5. Cape Coral – 43 days, 19 days longer year-to-year
  6. North Port – 42 days, 18 days longer year-to-year
  7. Orlando – 26 days, 5 days longer year-to-year
  8. Tampa – 25 days, 5 days longer year-to-year

Four of the six fastest turnaround markets have median home sale prices well below the national level of $412,081 – one reason homes in those metros are getting snatched up so quickly.

The typical home that sold in Rochester last month went for $235,000, making it the 4th most affordable metro in the nation. Buffalo ranked No. 8, with a median sale price of $255,000, and Albany and Grand Rapids ranked 21st and 24th, with median sale prices of $310,000 and $320,000, respectively based on a list of U.S. metropolitan areas with populations of at least 750,000.

“You might not think of Rochester as a hotspot, but people are still flocking into our area and supply remains very low,” says Kimberly Hogue, a Rochester Redfin agent. “Especially for someone coming with a big-city budget, paying $400,000 for a beautiful single-family home in a desirable neighborhood is a no brainer, and there just aren’t enough to go around. Even with mortgage rates near 8%, homes here are still affordable.”

The situation is a bit different in nearby Buffalo, according to local Redfin agent James Strzalkowski, who has observed signs that the market is beginning to slow.

“Buffalo was promoted for years as an affordable city with so much to offer, including cheaper labor, but our local economy is changing. Home prices and the general cost of living are catching up to other parts of the country,” he says. “We have a housing shortage in part because people can’t afford to move, but homes that are listed are starting to sit for longer and see price drops as mortgage rates rise and inflation impacts our city.”

Slowest markets in the U.S.

In New Orleans, the typical September home went under contract in 70 days, making it the slowest market in the country. Next came Honolulu (62), Austin, Texas (59), West Palm Beach, (58), McAllen, Texas (53) and Charleston, S.C. (53).

Homes in most of those markets have historically taken longer to sell than the typical U.S. home, but the outlier is Austin, where homes historically sold faster. Austin exploded in popularity during the pandemic as scores of remote workers moved in from expensive coastal cities to take advantage of the area’s relatively affordable housing. In turn, home prices skyrocketed, and many homebuyers were priced out.

© 2023 Florida Realtors®

Wednesday, October 25, 2023

Survey: Bleak News for Remote Workers

 By Todd Campbell

Remote work, the viable pandemic option, is now a workplace perk for many people – but more and more employers are requiring a return to the office.

NEW YORK – Covid-era alternative work solutions have come under fire as businesses increasingly deploy a carrot-and-stick approach to convincing employees to return to offices.

Technology titan Meta Platforms (META), which owns Facebook, threatened poor performance reviews if workers failed to attend offices three times weekly. JP Morgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon recently suggested workers uncomfortable with returning to offices should look for employment elsewhere.

Workers don’t like the idea of giving up the flexibility afforded by remote work, but a recent survey shows that these workers may face an uphill battle if they hope to continue working from home.

Remote work loses its luster

Companies big and small rushed to offer flexible alternative work schedules like remote and hybrid work during Covid. Remote work quickly became a key benefit used to fill jobs created by those who took early retirement and newly created positions in response to demand growth fueled by easy-money policies.

Remote work initially appeared to be a win/win for companies and employees. It allowed businesses to source job candidates nationally rather than locally and sometimes save money by closing expensive offices. Meanwhile, workers could live in the suburbs rather than crowded cities and save money by eliminating expensive childcare costs.

Unfortunately, the love affair with remote work has soured over the past year.

Businesses, from technology to financial services, have rolled back remote work, citing a need for increased collaboration and greater productivity. Many companies have likely sought to reduce the number of remote workers as part of layoff plans or to fill otherwise vacant office spaces.

Businesses are winning the return-to-office battle

Worker surveys suggest employees prefer remote work. However, they’re losing the battle with employers demanding more office face time.

The Census Bureau’s latest Household Pulse Survey shows remote work has reached a new post-pandemic low, with declines seen in all 50 states, reports Bloomberg.

The survey showed that fewer than 26% of households include someone who works remotely at least one day weekly. That’s a significant drop-off from the high of 37% in 2021. A total of 31 states had remote work rates above 33% at the peak. Now, only seven states exceed that hurdle.

States with the highest percentages of remote workers are typically Democratic states, mainly on the east and west coasts. Middle America and the South boast some of the lowest rates of remote work.

There’s also a more significant push for a return to office (RTO) in major metro markets where office building valuations are tumbling because of empty offices. During its recent quarterly conference call, Goldman Sachs (GS) told investors that it reduced valuations on office properties in its portfolio by 50%.

The impact of lower valuations on financial companies could contribute to the stricter return to office demands. Big banks like JP Morgan have been among the most vocal in demanding RTO, and they’re also heavily exposed to commercial real estate.

For instance, in addition to loans held on commercial properties, JP Morgan is building a new multibillion-dollar headquarters in New York City.

© Copyright 2023, Longview News-Journal, Longview, TX