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Thursday, June 20, 2024

Redfin: U.S. Home Prices Rising at Slower Pace

 Price growth is slowing, thanks to a small uptick in new listings as elevated mortgage rates keep buyers at bay.

SEATTLE – U.S. home prices rose 0.3% month over month in May — the smallest increase on a seasonally adjusted basis since January 2023, per a new report from real estate brokerage Redfin. Prices climbed 7.2% from a year earlier, but annual growth showed signs of plateauing.

This is according to the Redfin Home Price Index (RHPI), which uses the repeat-sales pricing method to calculate seasonally adjusted changes in prices of single-family homes. The RHPI measures sale prices of homes that sold during a given period and how those prices have changed since the last time those same homes sold. It’s similar to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices but publishes more than one month earlier. May data covers the three months ending May 31, 2024.

While home prices remain at record highs, the pace at which they’re growing has slowed because even though we’re still in a severe housing shortage, it’s not quite as severe as it was last year. New listings have been inching upward, which has taken a little pressure off of sale prices because buyers have more options to choose from. Listings should continue to tick up slowly as the mortgage rate lock-in effect continues to wear off; eventually, the people who don’t want to move because they have an ultra-low mortgage rate have to move.

“We learned last week that inflation continued to cool in May, which means mortgage rates could decline in late summer or early fall,” said Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao. “A drop in mortgage rates would bring both buyers and sellers back to the market, which could either accelerate price growth or pull it back depending on who comes back with more force. If sellers come back faster, prices would likely cool, but if buyers come back faster, prices would likely ramp up.”

New listings rose 0.3% month over month in May on a seasonally adjusted basis and climbed 8.8% from a year earlier, though they were still roughly 20% below pre-pandemic levels.

Home price growth started to ease at around the same time that new listings started to tick up last year; new listings saw their first notable increase in August 2023, and monthly price growth began cooling during the three months ending Oct. 31, 2023.

© 2024 Florida Realtors®

More Homeowners Required to Buy Flood Insurance

 By Ron Hurtibise

Borrowers with federally backed mortgages in parts of South Florida, and soon all Citizens customers, must buy flood insurance.

MIAMI – Tens of thousands of homeowners in Florida will soon be required to buy flood insurance, and the flooding that inundated large areas of Broward and Miami-Dade counties this week shows why insurance experts say it’s necessary.

In Broward County, 88,913 parcels that were previously in low-risk flood zones on flood hazard maps updated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Flood Insurance Program will be moved into special flood hazard zones, according to a new flood map revision that takes effect July 31.

Home loan borrowers with federally backed mortgages who live in those parcels will now be required, under terms of their loans, to purchase flood insurance.

Clara Inchastegui, who lives in Miramar’s Sunset Lakes community, said she was notified that she will be required to buy flood insurance once the new map takes effect.

“I’m not happy about it,” Inchastegui said. “Now we’re going to have to pay for flood insurance and before we didn’t.”

A majority of parcels newly designated as high-risk are in low-lying areas of eastern and southern Broward that were swamped by the heavy rainstorms of the past week.

And if you get your homeowner insurance from state-owned Citizens Property Insurance Corp., you are being required to purchase flood insurance if you want to keep your Citizens policy. That law, enacted in 2022 just months after Hurricane Ian swept the state with a deadly mix of high winds, rain and storm surge, is being phased in through 2027.

While it will ultimately require that nearly all Citizens customers buy flood insurance whether or not they live in flood-hazard zones, the new law took effect on July 1, 2023, for all Citizens properties with wind coverage in special flood hazard zones.

After every flood disaster, policymakers say they are surprised by the number of victims who said they thought their damage was covered by their homeowner insurance policies.

It’s not. Homeowner insurance typically only covers water damage if it is driven by wind or results from a breach of the roof or walls, a pipe break or failure of an indoor appliance such as a dishwasher or hot water heater.

Flooding that results from intense rain, as South Florida homeowners experienced this past week, rising lakes or canals, or storm surge during a hurricane is only covered by flood insurance.

“What we experienced this week is a stark reminder that flooding can occur any time in South Florida, not just during hurricanes,” said Mark Friedlander, director of corporate communications for the industry-funded Insurance Information Institute.

“And flooding is not restricted to FEMA flood zones. It can occur in any community. Homeowners need to own their risk and assess how vulnerable they are to hazards like flooding. You are not fully protected from storm hazards without flood insurance.”

Florida already has the highest number of properties with flood insurance from the National Flood Insurance Program of any state — 1.7 million of 3.4 million nationwide. Of the 1.7 million, 666,513 policies were taken out in South Florida’s tricounty region, FEMA figures show.

In addition, the statewide number of flood insurance policies from private-market insurers was 76,348 as of Dec. 31, according to the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation.

But the combined total still means that only about 19% of more than 10 million Florida households have flood insurance.

The shortfall exposed thousands of Hurricane Ian victims to flood damage not covered by insurance. Data analytics company CoreLogic found that Hurricane Ian caused $18 billion in uninsured flood damage in Florida and other impacted states like North and South Carolina.

In Florida, more than 70,000 Hurricane Ian victims received FEMA disaster assistance grants that averaged $9,242 and could be used for rent for temporary shelters or basic home repairs. They could also apply for low-interest Small Business Administration loans that are required to be repaid.

Ian victims with flood insurance, by contrast, received an average of $66,000 when they filed claims, FEMA figures show.

How are properties rated for flood risk?

FEMA periodically revises its flood insurance risk maps on a county-by-county basis after conducting risk studies that consider changes, such as updated hurricane modeling, updated elevation data, development that’s taken place since the last study, and recent storm patterns.

It assigns risk zone ratings that correspond to the likelihood that a structure will be flooded. Zones that begin with the letter A, such as AE or AH are at high risk of flooding. Homes and businesses with federally backed mortgages and Zone A designations are required to purchase flood insurance.

The same is true for properties in zones that begin with V, like V or VE. These denote high-risk coastal areas with additional hazards from storm waves.

Parcels in X zones are determined to be of low and moderate-low risk of flooding and therefore carry no flooding insurance requirement.

But experts caution homeowners in X zones against foregoing flood insurance, particularly in Florida, where the entire state is under a perpetual flood risk.

Nationwide, about a third of all flood insurance claims are filed by owners of properties in moderate-low risk zones, according to FEMA’s website.

Map revisions will prove expensive for some

Broward County’s upcoming flood risk map revision is the first in South Florida slated to be finalized.

Palm Beach County is expecting a letter from FEMA before the end of June that would finalize a revised flood risk map that followed FEMA’s study of new coastal engineering in the county.

The revision would add 5,804 structures to special flood hazard zones, a FEMA spokesman said.

Miami-Dade County is awaiting a letter in August resolving appeals by several cities to a pending map revision that proposes to add 45,420 structures to special flood hazard zones.

Of the 88,913 Broward County parcels that will be added on July 31 to special hazard flood zones where flood insurance will be required for borrowers of federally backed mortgages, 79,689 were in such zones prior to being removed during the last map revision in 2014.

A total of 266,000 — or 60% of all Broward parcels — were moved into low or moderate risk zones in 2014. The map taking effect on July 31 moves only 2,559 parcels from zones requiring flood insurance.

Flood insurance will remain mandatory for 149,795 parcels and optional for 242,654 parcels.

Newly placed into flood zones on July 31 will be:

— 25,878 parcels in Miramar.

— 22,079 in Pembroke Pines.

— 9,455 in Fort Lauderdale.

— 7,392 in Hollywood.

— 5,910 in Oakland Park.

— 3,557 in Pompano Beach.

— 3,082 in Cooper City.

— 3,055 in Dania Beach.

— 1,934 in Davie.

— The rest are split among 11 other cities and unincorporated areas of the county.

Lending guidelines for homeowners with federally backed mortgages require purchase of flood insurance by borrowers in special hazard flood zones.

Dulce Suarez-Resnick, vice president at Miami-based insurance agency Acentria, said mortgage lenders will begin sending letters after July 1 to homeowners formerly in the lowest-risk “X” zones who are being transferred to higher-risk zones such as “AH” or “AE.”

Borrowers who receive a letter will have 30 days to provide proof of flood insurance coverage. Borrowers who fail to do so will put themselves at risk that their lender will force-place coverage, Suarez-Resnick said.

A Miramar resident, Suarez-Resnick said she is among homeowners who were transferred out of a high-risk zone into an “X” zone in 2014 and is being returned to a high-risk zone on July 31.

“We will get a nasty gram (from her lender) in July,” she said.

Inchastegui’s agent told her the coverage that she’ll be required to buy will cost between $700 and $900. She acknowledged that’s less than others will have to pay but said it’s yet another new expense to deal with as costs rise for regular property insurance, food and utilities.

“I guess in the event there’s a disaster, of course we would need it,” she said. “But we’ve been here 14 years and never had a flood problem.”

Coverage became more expensive on Oct. 1, 2021, after FEMA introduced a new pricing structure it calls Risk Rating 2.0.

Under the new structure, prices are set based on risk variables such as elevation of the structure, proximity to water sources, flood frequency, types of flooding, and cost to rebuild.

‘A rude awakening’ awaits those whose policies lapsed

While existing policyholders will be grandfathered into new higher prices with increases capped at 18% a year, customers buying flood insurance for the first time — or for the first time after allowing coverage to lapse — will be required to pay the current full price before the 18% annual cap takes effect.

“Those folks that let go of their flood policies back then are in for a rude awakening,” Suarez-Resnick said. “They lost the grandfathering, and they lost the protection of the new Risk Rating 2.0 glide path, where the rate increases are capped at 18% until they reach the full risk rate.”

A spreadsheet released by FEMA in 2023 showed that coverage in Broward County’s 33305 ZIP code that includes Wilton Manors and Fort Lauderdale neighborhoods near the Middle River increased by 209% — from an average of $1,099 to $3,400.

In the 33315 ZIP code that includes Fort Lauderdale’s Edgewood neighborhood, average rates increased by 64% — from $863 to $1,420.

Cost burdens will also be increased by the new mandate that Citizens Insurance customers with wind coverage must buy flood insurance. Currently, the requirement would affect about 1.1 million Citizens customers relying on the company to provide personal residential coverage. About 100,000 households with renter or condo unit coverage will be excluded.

The requirement took effect on July 1, 2023, for Citizens customers in flood hazard zones seeking to renew their policies.

On Jan. 1, it took effect for all policies with wind coverage of $600,000 or more.

Next Jan. 1, it will take effect for all policies with wind coverage of $500,000 or more, and on Jan. 1, 2026, for policies with $400,000 or more in coverage.

By Jan. 1, 2027, all Citizens customers with wind coverage, except renters and condo unit owners, will be required to buy flood insurance.

However, customers targeted by “takeout” companies as part of Citizens’ controversial depopulation strategy will be exempt if they had not yet purchased flood insurance prior to accepting the takeout, Citizens spokesman Michael Peltier said.

Since Citizens began enforcing the flood insurance requirement, 23,402 policies have been terminated or non-renewed for failing to purchase flood coverage, Peltier said.

© 2024 South Florida Sun-Sentinel. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Friday, June 14, 2024

Redfin: U.S. Home Prices Hit Another Record High

 Redfin said declining mortgage rates could bring back demand. Three Florida cities have seen some of the biggest decreases in pending sales.

SEATTLE — The median U.S. home-sale price hit an all-time high of $394,000 during the four weeks ending June 9, up 4.4% year over year — the biggest increase in about three months. That’s according to a new report from the real estate brokerage Redfin.

There are signs that home-price growth could ease soon. Asking prices have leveled off, and 6.5% of home sellers are cutting their asking price, on average, the highest share since November 2022. Prices are already declining in four U.S. metros: Austin, TX, Fort Worth, TX, San Antonio, TX and Portland, OR.

Three Florida cities are the metro areas with the biggest year-over-year decreases in pending sales:

  • West Palm Beach, FL (-13.4%)
  • Fort Lauderdale, FL (-11.5%)
  • Tampa, FL (-9.9%)

Meanwhile, the typical homebuyer’s monthly housing payment dipped to $2,829, which is $30 below April’s record high. Median housing payments have fallen slightly since April despite record sale prices because weekly average mortgage rates have declined to 6.99%.

Mortgage rates are likely to decline further over the summer, which would keep monthly housing costs from spiraling up again. Daily average mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in three months on June 12 after the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that inflation is continuing to cool. And although the Fed forecast just one interest-rate cut this year at its June 12 meeting, it’s possible the Fed didn’t fully consider the fresh inflation data in time for the meeting; they may revise their projection at the next meeting. (It’s worth noting that daily rates have been volatile for the last several days; they soared after last Friday’s hot jobs report before dropping back down.)

“The latest inflation report is good for homebuyers because it has already sent mortgage rates down, though this week’s Fed meeting will temper mortgage-rate declines,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s economic research lead. “But on the other side of the coin, if lower mortgage rates bring back more demand than supply, that could erase the possibility that home-price growth softens, and push prices up even further. Lower rates and higher prices may ultimately cancel each other out when it comes to homebuyers’ monthly payments.”

For now, high costs are keeping some prospective homebuyers on the sidelines. Pending home sales are down 3.5% year over year, the biggest decline in three months, and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index — a measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents — is down 18%, sitting at its lowest level since February. But there is one encouraging sign for demand: Mortgage-purchase applications are up 9% week over week. On the selling side, new listings are up 7.8% year over year, but they’re below typical springtime levels, which is why home prices keep rising despite tepid demand.

© 2024 Florida Realtors®

Wednesday, June 5, 2024

Rental Market Settling in Most Florida Cities

 By Amber Bonefont

Rents across the state are trending down. South Florida rents are among the highest in the state. Researchers said the days of rapidly rising rents are probably over.

BOCA RATON – Just a year ago, nearly all the measured Florida metros were at double-digit premiums, but now renters in Florida could see cheaper rents as most of the measured cities are showing signs of rents trading either at a discount compared to long-term pricing trends or premiums of less than 1%, according to researchers at Florida Atlantic University and two other schools.

Rents in Palm Bay and Jacksonville are below their long-term pricing trends, end of April data from the Waller, Weeks and Johnson Rental Index shows. In Palm Bay, rents are at a -.39% discount with the typical unit in the area renting for $1,979.10. For Jacksonville, rents are at a -.15% discount with the average unit renting for $1,743.66.

“While these measures are small, they are a positive sign of where the rental market could be heading in the future,” said Ken H. Johnson, Ph.D., real estate economist with FAU’s College of Business. “These Florida cities are renting at a discount compared to their historical averages and others appear to be heading in that direction, suggesting that rental markets around the state are stabilizing.”

The Waller, Weeks and Johnson Rental Index, a part of FAU’s Real Estate Initiative, examines where the average rent is in the 100 most populated metropolitan areas in the United States and compares it to where rents should be based on statistical modeling of historical rental prices. Johnson, along with fellow researchers, Shelton Weeks, Ph.D., of Florida Gulf Coast University, and Bennie Waller, Ph.D., of the University of Alabama, also measure average yearly increases, monthly increases, and how much money the typical household needs to make to avoid paying more than 30% of their income toward rent.

Premiums in other measured Florida cities are edging back toward historical norms. Rents are at a .34% premium in Deltona; .35% premium in Orlando; .48% premium in Cape Coral; .66% premium in Lakeland; .79% premium in North Port; and 1.01% premium in Tampa.

“South Florida, however, remains a problem child in the state in terms of rent growth,” Weeks said. “Premiums in the Miami metro area are the highest among measured metros in the state at 4.19%.”

All three researchers agree that the days of rapidly rising rents are probably over.  However, the new higher rents will cause affordability issues for quite some time to come as incomes race to catch up with the new rent levels.

Overall, 18 metropolitan areas around the country are trading at a rental discount, and it appears much of the country is heading in the same direction,” Waller said.

© 2024 Florida Atlantic University