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Monday, May 3, 2021

The Future of Florida’s Growth – Net Migration

 Florida Realtors economist: Economists predict there will be an additional 1.4 million Floridians by 2025 – a good omen for real estate. However, not all of the state’s counties will see equal growth over the coming years.

ORLANDO, Fla. – What will Florida’s population be in 2025? Estimates from both Florida’s Office of Economic & Demographic Research (EDR) and the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) anticipate over 23 million people will reside in the Sunshine State.

That’s a 7% increase from their 2020 population estimate of 21.6 million (created before the release of the official Census count) and good news for real estate – increased population generates demand for housing.

There’s insight to draw from each of the different, but similarly trending, estimates. EDR provides breakdowns into the components of population: net natural increase (births-deaths) and net migration, while BEBR presents a projection for each Florida county.

Before we look ahead, let’s revisit the past. Since 2010, Florida added nearly 2.9 million people. Of that growth, approximately 10% of the gain happened through natural increase. The remaining 90% was attributed to net migration; more residents come to Florida than leave, and the share of growth due to net migration increased over the years.

Now we go back, back to the future. EDR provides a bleak picture for natural increase. It anticipates the number of deaths will be higher than births.

Still, net migration will more than cover the losses from natural increase through 2039, where the estimates stop.

Erica Plemmons is an economist and Florida Realtors Director of Housing Statistics

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